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Neo_Sarevok
Level 2
Sweat Hog
Posts: 5
1. My Identity Strategies (if I were on the show) | 12/21/2006 7:05pm
Okay, I've watched every episode of Identity thus far. As you all know, there are three helps: The "Mistaken Identity," the "Tri-dentity," and the "Experts." Here's my take on it - a smart contestant can realize these three helps have much greater potential than simply "using them when they feel like it." Every contestant I've watched, thus far in my mind, have NOT utilized the helps very efficiently. I want to go through each of the three helps and I want you guys/gals to tell me what you think about each strategic use I have behind it. Some of these tactics have some confusing "Alice and Wonderland" complexities, so hear me out carefully. Feel free to follow up with your own strategies or disagree with my own:

MISTAKEN IDENTITY - You want to try and save this when there are only three strangers remaining and when you have an idea, even if it's a small one, as to who one of the three remaining might be. A contestant shouldn't save it for only two remaining strangers because Penn will steal it from you (sometimes without telling you). For this example, let's use the Dec 21st example of the Alligator Wrestler, the CSI Investigator, and the Kidney Donor. Here is the secret behind the Mistaken Identity - for the three strangers, find one you have a good idea as to what their identity is, but do NOT pick that person! Instead, pick one of the other two. For this example, let's say we have an idea that Person A is the Alligator Wrestler, so let's guess Person B (or C) is, say.... the Kidney Donor. If we get the Kidney Donor pick right, then okay, good deal, but here comes the cool part: If we get it wrong, that's a good deal too! What I'm saying is, right or wrong, it doesn't matter because either way we'll greatly improve our positive outcome probability - we simply need to play the end game slightly depending on whether the Kidney Donor pick is right or not:

If Kidney Donor pick is right: By default, we have a good idea Person A is the Alligator Wrestler,
so if we pick person B as the Kidney Donor to be correct, then that means the other remaining person, person C, has a strong probability of being the only other remaining pick.... the CSI Investigator!
If Kidney Donor pick is wrong: In this case, person B states, "I am not a Kidney Donor." Obviously this person must be either an Alligator Wrestler or a CSI Investigator, but remember, you had a good idea person A was the Alligator Wrestler, so odds are the person who stated he/she wasn't a Kidney Donor (person B) is a CSI Investigator! By process of elimination, this leaves person C as the true Kidney Donor. It's worth noting, even though we sacrificed our Mistaken Identity to achieve this knowledge, we lose it anyway after the third stranger pick, whether we get the answer right or not, so sacrificing it ON the third stranger is NOT a loss.

What do all the other contestants do when there are three strangers left?... They usually pick the stranger they're confident with, only to find them losing their Mistaken Identity with two strangers they don't know which to choose from! It then comes down to basically a 50/50 chance and a 50/50 chance for $500,000 or nothing is too risky, in my opinion. They can avoid this by following my above advice.

TRI-DENTITY:
How to use it: This is most useful on the VERY first stranger with a very hard occupation (ie. nearly all strangers remain on people with a lot of common traits, like strong physical physique). Why? Let's say you're trying to figure out who a football player is and everyone else is left, including people who are obviously not a football player, like an innocent girl and a Witch Doctor. The Tri-Dentity picks three RANDOM people and guess what.... one of these three picks might be the obvious Witch Doctor! Hah, obviously the Witch Doctor isn't the football player, so you're now left with only two people and once again, there's a good chance the second Tri-Dentity pick could be some other person who obviously doesn't have a football physique either, leaving you with only one obvious pick! Basically by keeping the obvious ones on the field, you have a chance of the Tri-Dentity picking those obvious people and thus, giving you a greater probability to pick the person you know might be the right stranger. The best part is, by eliminating this hard pick early, you avoid having it to haunt you in the mid to late game.
How NOT to use it: Save it for the late game (ie. 4-6 strangers), only to have the tri-dentity pick three people who all fit the football physique and leaving you with nothing but hard choices.

EXPERTS:
No real secrets here, but to make it easier on the Experts, I would eliminate as many strangers as I could, meaning I would use the Experts in the mid to late game. They may be professionals, but they're still only human. Thus far their track record on "Identitiy" has been flawless, but just wait, they'll reveal their imperfections soon enough and sadly it's probably going to be a dumb contestant who calls on them too early who ruins them. Remember the "Three Wise Men" lifeline on the "Who Wants to be a Millionare" special event? Despite their intelligence, they missed practically every question!

To summarize, in order:
1.) Use Tri-dentity on the VERY first stranger early in the game to get rid of a hard pick.
2.) Start guessing the obvious ones and work your way up to the difficulty until you're stumped.
3.) Once stumped (hopefully into the mid to late game), use your experts.
4.) If you still have your Mistaken Identity once you've reached three remaining strangers, use it to pick one of the two you're NOT confident about to avoid a 50/50 $500,000 decision.
5.) Take your $500,000 winnings to Vegas and have fun losing it!

It's worth noting that walking away with only $250,000 is not necessarily a bad thing either. I'm not a huge risk taker and in the event a contestant gets caught in the 50/50 outcome, I would just say stick with the $250,000. What is great about my Mistaken Identitiy advice though is you can AVOID the pitfall of a 50/50 outcome.  Anyways, let me know what you guys think and thanks for reading and (hopefully) understanding what I had to say =D.

Special thanks to Chris Scott for his infinite wisdom on these l33t strats.
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paul61
Level 8
Super-Friend
Posts: 28
2. Re: My Identity Strategies (if I were on the show) | 12/22/2006 4:18am
This makes perfect sense and echoes a lot of what I said in the "Strategy?" thread.
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redberries
Level 3
Soup Nazi
Posts: 15
3. Re: My Identity Strategies (if I were on the show) | 12/22/2006 12:23pm
I tend to agree. If the woman last night had used the tri-dentity early on to find out who the CSI or kidney donor was some of the other people that she knew the identity of may have been included into the three thus giving her the one she didn't know. And she should have just gone for the the CSI or kidney at the round where she had three people left. She would have most certainly won the $500,000. She just wasted the freebee guess.
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Synetech
Level 18
Land Shark
Posts: 1,071
4. Re: My Identity Strategies (if I were on the show) | 05/04/2007 12:01am
Damn! Neo_Sarevok, you nailed it. I was wondering if I was the only one who understood the statistics of this show because all but one of the contestants have played horribly.

Of course this is only the right strategy to use if you are going for the gold. If you intend to take less money and run, then you need to go for the easy ones first.
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