2010 Emmy Predictions: Drama

  • 43comments

It's time to get dramatic. The dramatic side of the 2010 Emmys board is much busier than the comedy side, with worthy candidates bloating every category. This is the part where the painful snubs take place and surprises rule.

There are plenty of critical favorites, popular network programs, and dark horses doing battle this year, but the real question is: "Will Mad Men win three in a row?" I don't think so.

Take a look at who I think will get nominated (as opposed to who should get nominated), and check back to see how wrong I was tomorrow morning, when the nominations are announced.

Best Drama Series

AMC's Mad Men has won the award for the last two seasons, but there's going to be a changing of the guard this year. Breaking Bad should win for its remarkable third season, keeping the Best Drama trophy at AMC. Lost's final season will be a popular vote for viewers at home, but it won't win. The longshot in the race is Sons of Anarchy, which should be in the running but won't be because of its ultra-violent content. And hairy, sweaty men.
Our Picks:
(* denotes the nominee we think will win)
Breaking Bad*
Lost
Dexter
Mad Men
The Good Wife
Damages

Sleeper:
Sons of Anarchy

Best Actor, Drama

I'm not a huge fan of three-peats, but when it comes to exemplary acting, Bryan Cranston sets the bar. He's simply a few steps ahead of everyone else. I'm taking a gamble in saying that Matthew Fox will get a nod, but I really think he deserves it this year and Jack's salvation should still be in voters' minds. I'm taking another gamble with Ray Romano, who was brilliant in the very surprisingly good Men of a Certain Age. There really isn't a bad name in this bunch (Hugh Laurie is the odd man out), but I'd love to see Wendell Pierce break through for his work on Treme. He's completely transformed himself from The Wire's Bunk Moreland. And what more can be said about Kyle Chandler? Except that once again, he will be overlooked.
Our Picks:
(* denotes the nominee we think will win)
Matthew Fox, Lost
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad*
Michael C. Hall, Dexter
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Ray Romano, Men of a Certain Age
Simon Baker, The Mentalist

Sleepers:
Wendell Pierce, Treme
Kyle Chandler, Friday Night Lights

Best Actress, Drama

There are lots of familiar names here as TV once again fails to deliver enough strong female roles in primetime. But returning to the scene is Julianna Margulies with one of the strongest female characters in recent history. She should be a lock. That said, a pair of redheads are the worthy picks here. I well up just thinking about what Katey Sagal went through on this season of Sons of Anarchy, and Connie Britton should already have three Emmys. Instead, she has zero nominations... the crime of the century. And I swear to God, if Anna Paquin gets nominated for True Blood I will jump off a cliff.
Our Picks:
(* denotes nominee we think will win)
Glenn Close, Damages
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife*
Katey Sagal, Sons of Anarchy
Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: Special Victims Unit
January Jones, Mad Men
Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer

Sleeper:
Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
Connie Britton, Friday Night Lights

Best Supporting Actor, Drama

I hope a slow first half doesn't hurt Aaron Paul's chances this year, as he was ridiculously good through the last half of Breaking Bad, all the way to the show's powerhouse Season 3 finale. And I know Michael Emerson (Lost) is a popular pick, but I still think Josh Holloway deserves a nomination this year. If you've never seen Martin Short actually act his ass off, you obviously didn't see this season of Damages. But this is a two-horse race, with Terry O'Quinn and Paul going for it. We're giving it to the kid. Just a side note: I wanted to make a mention of Zach Gilford's excellent work on Friday Night Lights, but given his mid-season exit, a nomination would seem unfair.
Our Picks:
(* denotes the nominee we think will win)
Josh Holloway, Lost
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad*
Terry O'Quinn, Lost
John Slattery, Mad Men
Martin Short, Damages
Chris Noth, The Good Wife

Sleepers:
Andre Braugher, Men of a Certain Age

Best Supporting Actress, Drama

If the Supporting Actress award was given for kick-assedness, Khandi Alexander would win in a heartbeat. She laid down something fierce in Treme. However, no one had a better season than Chloe Sevigny in Big Love. She should win, but voters are pretty Mad Men crazy so Elisabeth Moss is primed to walk home with the award. We'll put the asterisk by Sevigny's name though, because she deserves it.
Our Picks:
(* denotes nominee we think will win)
Chandra Wilson, Grey's Anatomy
Rose Byrne, Damages
Khandi Alexander, Treme
Chloe Sevigny, Big Love*
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men

Sleeper:
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife

The nominations for the 62nd Primetime Emmy Awards will be revealed Thursday, July 8, at 8:30am Eastern/5:30am Pacific.

Who do you want to see get nominated for an Emmy this year?

Check out our guesses for the Comedy field.


Follow TV.com writer Tim Surette on Twitter: @TimAtTVDotCom

Like TV.com on Facebook