Can TV.com Staffers Predict a Show's Future? (INFOGRAPHIC)

Way back in October, we posted the fall installment of a regular TV.com feature called the 4-Episode Test, wherein we rate and review the first four episodes of all the new TV shows gracing your screen to tell you which ones are worth watching. Today, we're on the cusp of publishing the midseason edition of the story (check back next week see it live!), which got us wondering: Do our ratings of new TV shows reflect whether or not they survive long-term?

Now that most of the fall shows have caught wind of their network-determined fates, we have all the information we need to answer that burning question. So, naturally, we compiled it all in an infographic.

Click the image to open the full-size, hi-res version in a new window.


How did your own opinions of the shows listed above compare to their eventual fates?

Comments (30)
Submit
Sort: Latest | Popular
Feb 07, 2012
I need to get back to Homeland... the pilot was great.
Reply
Flag
Feb 07, 2012
So what's the conclusion? Can you predict or not?
Reply
Flag
Feb 06, 2012
Prime Suspect deserves a second and third seasons. They probably just need a change of time.



The show is just awesome and the writing is way better than lotsa of shows.PLEASE KEEP THEM. So I agree with the Metacritic rating.
Reply
Flag
Feb 06, 2012
Thanks to all who noticed Allen Gregory was accidentally listed twice! Not sure how that one slipped by us, but we've just updated the graphic to fix the error. Happy Sundaying...
Reply
Flag
Feb 06, 2012
I don't understand, were you right? You didn't outline any parameters for the results. Does a review score of 50%+ = Renewal?

This isn't grade 10 math, no half marks for showing your work. What's the conclusion?
Reply
Flag
Feb 06, 2012
Interesting, I can't wait for more American Horror Story
Reply
Flag
Feb 05, 2012
So you had some shows that you gave favorable reviews that were were picked up or cancelled, and you had some shows that you gave bad reviews that were picked up or cancelled. Great work guys.
Reply
Flag
Feb 05, 2012
perfectly phrased...i wanted to make the same point but couldn't come up with a good way to say it.



I think the TV.com staff are too obsessed with trying to make TV shows like fantasy sports or something.



Why do they feel the need to root against shows?



Yes, we want their honest opinions about the show, but we're not trying to start a political movement are we? Occupy by network TV?



If a show gets 33%, that means 33% of somebody liked a show. What's wrong with that? Can TV.com prove that renewing a weak show automatically means a good show is canceled? I don't think so. But if there are such cases, by all means lets storm the castle in those cases.



Otherwise let people enjoy what they want to enjoy.



Next, the staff will start giving daily horoscopes and then letting us know that in many cases they were able to predict the future (except when they weren't able to)
Reply
Flag
Feb 05, 2012
TV.COM EDITORS: Allen Gregory is in the ABC slot as well as the Fox slot. I'm guessing you meant to have Work It in that slot for ABC instead.



Someone needs to tell CBS that they don't need to green-light everything, either on CBS or The CW.
Reply
Flag
Feb 05, 2012
I just had a seizure after reading that whole thing!
Reply
Flag
Feb 05, 2012
Change the title from "Infographic" to "Infodump", please.
Reply
Flag
Feb 05, 2012
Allen Gregory is listed twice
Reply
Flag
Feb 05, 2012
How has Whitney last this long?
Reply
Flag
Feb 05, 2012
Total TV.com % added up: 1333

Total Metacritic score added up: 1402

Total # of shows: 24

TV.com Average: 55.5

Metacritic Average: 58.4

With a 5% error rate factored in, TV.com does about the same as Metacritic.

Out of 18 renewals and full season orders, TV.com had a higher score for 10 while Metacritic had a higher score for 8. TV.com totaled 1099 and averaged 61.1 for the 18 renewals while Metacritic totaled 1091 and averaged 60.6, which is just about the same.
Reply
Flag
Feb 05, 2012
why does the TV.com staff take such giddy joy in predicting a show's demise.



I happen to be one of the 66 percent of people who like the show. It's NOT a great show. But I enjoy it for what it is, and hope it will get better.



Other shows, such as Up All Night, I LOVE to bash because I think it stinks. And I love to tell people not to watch it because it stinks. And I love to tell people exactly WHY I KNOW it stinks.



However, I don't care if it's RENEWED because I know some brain-dead impotent lunkhead is enjoying it. And THAT"S OK!
Reply
Flag
Feb 05, 2012
why isn't terra nova on life support? pretty sure that has a slim chance of coming back...
Reply
Flag
Feb 05, 2012
i like Terra Nova. 64 percent of critics AGREE with ME, not YOU!



If Terra Nova were running for president, it would be a LANDSLIDE!



Why does Terra Nova's weak (but majority) rating make you RIGHT and the rest of us WRONG?



It's all Opinion. And it's a business decision by the network. But I think Terra Nova, like Stargate Universe, has a lot of potential if the show were allowed to develop. If it's canceled, I will go on. There will be other TV shows. There are other Fish in the cable sea.



Why can't the rest of you just NOT WATCH the show, and stop the childish nitpicking.



IF you want to nitpick something, nitpick how Walking Dead expoits violence against children in order to titillate adults. At least then there would be a point.
Reply
Flag
Feb 06, 2012
Dude. Seriously? Chill.

You say it's all opinion, yet attack someone for giving theirs? The childishness in this situation is your need to point fingers and say "Look, critcsa gree with me, and not you, na na na na na!"

It's all opinion. In my opinion, the show is awful! In yours, it's great! Leave it at that, will you?
Reply
Flag
Feb 06, 2012
you missed my point entirely...almost as if you did not actually read it.



People traditionally read reviews to get an "expert" opinion about a movie or a "fan" opinion. Normally, people don't read reviews to find out how smart the reviewer is in predicting whether a show will be canceled or not.



Conversely, most reviewers write reviews to share their opinions, not to campaign or lobby to networks about which show should be canceled. (it's particularly odd for this site since it has a minor conflict of interest, which I have no problem with except when/if they campaign for which shows to cancel.



Finally, my point is that every show has its fans. If you want to share your opinion about how bad a show is, that's great. That's fun. We can read your opinion and choose whether to watch the show or not. Or we can watch the show and see if our opinions match. Eventually, we select a few reviewers who tend to share our tastes.



But to campaign against a show to get it canceled, simply because you personally don't like it.



That's bad form, my man, but maybe a bit too mature for some people to process.
More +
Reply
Flag
Feb 05, 2012
Random shows to pick (I.e. missing other shows and not sure it really showed how well you could predict), difficult to read and follow what it was showing



also Allen Gregory listed twice!?
Reply
Flag
Feb 05, 2012
Looking at the renewed shows, which I guess is the ultimate honor, TV.com seemed to have hit 3/4... the one miss being a big one: The X-Factor. I'd agree with TV.com that it sucks, but judging from Metacritic, a lot of folks like it. I guess FOX does too, except for the fact that they want a lot of changes.



As for other misses, Hart of Dixie, Whitney, Unforgettable, and Last Man Standing were all picked up for a full season, despite TV.com's low ratings. If it makes you feel any better, Metacritic peeps similarly thought negatively of these shows.



Doesn't look like there were any bad cancellations though, unless Pan Am dies.
Reply
Flag
Feb 05, 2012
Wow, your articles are becoming more complex. Soon I have to take a degree in mathematics to understand them.



Just kidding, keep up the good work.
Reply
Flag
Feb 05, 2012
I would say you could predict. However, with NBC just pick what someone would do if they had a brain and then do the opposite of that and there ya go.



And seriously how is New Girl rated that high?
Reply
Flag
Feb 05, 2012
Wasn't Prime suspect cancelled. Nobody has a crystal ball.



Never thought I would say this but the pictures were confusing. Please just write stuff down in future, maybe with bullet points and relevant parts in bold or underlined.
Reply
Flag
Feb 05, 2012
Pretty sure Boss is on Starz, not Showtime.
Reply
Flag
Feb 06, 2012
You are absolutely correct and we apologize for the massive typo! We've updated the graphic to reflect this.
Reply
Flag
Feb 05, 2012
This is great. Now, if I'm looking for a new show to watch during the hiatuses, i can just look at this and pick something good. Might try Person of Interest. You should do this more often. Although, I'm pretty sure Allen Gregory wasn't on ABC.
Reply
Flag
Feb 05, 2012
Yeah, this graphic is way confusing. The 4-episode test didn't go percentages, so that's really weird and Allan Gregory is under both ABC and Fox...
Reply
Flag
Feb 05, 2012
Why is Allan Gregory listed twice?



Also, I think this crop of new shows from the big four has been fairly mediocre. The only shows I like are Up All Night, Suburgatory, and New Girl. I could probably watch 2 Broke Girls as well.. I also watch Ringer from The CW, and will continue watching Secret Circle when I get enough time. But really, none of the dramas have been really interesting.



And why didn't you include Game of Thrones and Enlightened, and probably some other cable shows?
Reply
Flag
Feb 05, 2012
This "scientific" chart is only for fall shows. Though Enlightened did premiere in October, Game of Thrones premiered in April. Also, there is no point in doing a four episode test for the premium channels anyway, because unless their show bombs ratings wise, they'll order a second season two days after the show premieres.
Reply
Flag