Dead Pool 2012: Before We Announce the Winners, Some Numbers, Figures, and a Pie Chart

Wednesday signaled the end of this year's Dead Pool, as final decisions were made on the only shows left to make decisions on: The Mob Doctor (canceled), Malibu Country (not canceled), and Emily Owens, M.D. (canceled). While we count and re-count every ballot you entered to figure out who won, we thought now would be a good time to take a look inside the numbers of this year's Dead Pool as well as the season's new shows.

Last year, we received just over 300 entries, which isn't bad considering this whole operation is run out of a cardboard box in an alley behind a Dunkin' Donuts. This year, our fantabulous team of engineers took the pencils and scratch paper out of my hand and made it much easier to enter the Dead Pool, and we were bombarded with more than 3,000 entries! Holy macaroni you guys really showed up for this one! I'm no professional success identifier, but I'd identify that as a success. A big round of applause for everyone who participated. Seriously, get your hand off your face and clap.

However, the major networks weren't nearly as fun as they were last year, because cancellations weren't as aplenty or as brutal as they were in 2011. That might be because there were fewer new shows to go around in the first place. In the fall of 2011, 27 new series fought for airtime in the fall season and eight were outright canceled (several more ran out their first seasons but never saw a second season, and a few more, like Allen Gregory and I Hate My Teenage Daughter were left to rot so their networks wouldn't face the shame of admitting failure). This fall, only 21 shows were birthed onto the schedule, and seven of them were offed (with more of them sure to be canceled in May). But 2011 had such spectacular flameouts! The Playboy Club, H8R (remember that?), Free Agents, Charlie's Angels, How to Be a Gentleman, and Man Up were disasters, good for eight points or more. This year? Only Animal Practice (+8 points) and Made in Jersey (+11 points) were must-haves for your entries.

So let's take a look at the distribution your picks for this year's Dead Pool in only way we know how to show you... with a PIE CHART!



What's particularly interesting is how wrong so many of us were in making our picks this year, which just goes to show how nuts network executives are. Last year the most popular picks were The Playboy Club, Charlie's Angels, H8R, Free Agents, and How to Be a Gentleman. We just knew they would stink and get canceled, and they did. This year, the top three picks by you and I were Guys With Kids, The Neighbors, and Malibu Country, and even though they all suffer varying degrees of stinkiness, guess what? They all received orders for more episodes.

We also showed a lot more confidence in dramas than we did comedies, with eight of the bottom 10 picks on the serious side. Only Go On, which had the firepower of Matthew Perry and had already been posting good numbers when the Dead Pool started, and The New Normal, which has Ryan Murphy's name attached to it, landed in the bottom bunch. The three most popular picks were comedies as well, but how quickly we forget that comedies, particularly multi-camera comedies like Guys With Kids and Malibu Country, are a lot cheaper to make and don't need as much of a return to stay on the air.

Scores were lower this year because networks were more hesitant to pull the trigger and blow the brains out of struggling shows. I mean The Mob Doctor hung around for eight episodes! The Playboy Club was canceled after three episodes, and its third episode notched a 1.2 rating in the adult demo. The Mob Doctor drew a 1.0 in its third episode, and yes it still went on to air five more. In 2011, shows that were canceled before their initial 13-episode run averaged 4.65 episodes aired. In 2012, the same shows lasted longer, with 5.85 episodes aired. Why? There are a million different possible answers, but my first inclination is to say that networks were more patient this year because they've accepted the fact that alternative forms of television consumption (online viewing, DVR time-shifting, etc.) exist, and they're looking for better ways to monetize them. That and there were fewer programs waiting in the wings to fill any gaps left by canceled shows.

The Dead Pool is a fun little exercise to see who can foretell doom the best, but it's also a way to see how general expectations for the season are met or shattered. What did you learn from participating in the Dead Pool this year?

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The link to the permalink for the dead pool main page is broken and has been for over a month and there does not seem to be anyway to e-mail you guys directly, so I will leave my question here even though there don't seem to ever be responses...

Are you ever going to announce the winner? Or are you just hoping people will forget? I don't think I won, but I did have fun playing and it would be nice to get some resolution.
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Have you already announced the winners?
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Well, I got three out of five and a total of 19. Decent enough for my first year, I guess. But I'm still beating myself up for replacing Animal Practice with Malibu Country.
Partners (+7)
The Mob Doctor (+5)
Guys With Kids (-2)
Made In Jersey (+11)
Malibu Country (-2)
Tiebreaker-Revolution
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I'm upset that 666 Park Avenue is ending so quickly. Yeah, it was bland at times and slow moving, but this was the first horror movie or show that has ever made me jump. I was on edge every single week. I wish it would be given a least one season, it has the potential to be an amazing show! :(
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i didnt start watching any new shows this yr since all the shows i really like get cancelled (like AWAKE). so maybe oce shows have a few seasons under their belt..i might watch them on netflix or something.
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I really like Emily Owens, M.D because she was smart, but had the same insecurities as many people do. I also think Guys with Kids is hilarious, I just cannot get enough. They barely gave Made in Jersey a chance before it was cancelled, and guess what? I liked that too. Partners was terrible, and 666 Park Avenue was just SO boring.
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I really didnt think Guys With Kids or Ben & Kate would last as long as they have... I personally find both of these shows annoying/bad. I guess I suck at guessing which shows will get cancelled....oh well. :/
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If you want to write a TV series, remember this, DON'T BE MEDIOCRE! The bad shows get people to watch them because they are so bad!
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RIP Last resort times infinity and beyond
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The only rule that seems a constant is this: If it's a battle between two shows for a renewal under the same network, the worse of the two will win and then be cancelled after the second season (which will be delayed and/or cut in length). Besides that, all is chaos in TV land in terms of predictions, and worse, in terms of creations.
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Another rule is: if a show is on FOX...it will probably be canceled. Also Last Resort got canceled, that surprised me.
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Well, that was my thinking when I picked Ben and Kate, which when it got renewed early on kinda set a tone for suckage on the lists. My choices seemed good at the time I made them but I still don't get Guys with Kids doing so well. Oh well, I guess 22 points a decent little score my first time picking. Will pick a little different next year.

Guys with Kids (-2)
Partners (+7)
Ben and Kate (-2)
Made in Jersey (+11)
Animal Practice (+8)

TB-Nashville
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I am sorry Emily Owens M.D got canceled I really thought that show was interesting and somewhat funny. Mob Doctor was unrealistic, my hubby is an ER doc, and there is no way a doctor can leave the hospital the way she does, and how often. Maybe they should have wrote her as a GP or Family Practice doctor then they could sneak patients in the back door. LOL
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Made in Jersey was cancelled after 2 episodes (just discovered tonight that they are showing the unaired episodes on Saturday night now. Mob Doctor also has already be cut.

I heard 666 Park Avenue has also been cut, as has Partners (not even showing episodes anymore.
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My list:

The Mindy Project -2
Guys With Kids -2
Animal Practice +8
The Mob Doctor +5
The Neighbors -2
Tie-breaker: Elementary

A grand lousy total of 7!

I learned that I suck at this and shouldn't go with my gut! I also learned that people keep on praising a show even if it gets dumber every subsequent episode just because it had a stellar pilot episode.
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I learned that if you want to know what's going to stick around, come to me. Obviously what I think is going to suck is going to be a full-blown success. Also, what I think will rock will actually crash and burn. =/
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Neighbors is damn funny, along with New Normal! Do you hear the biting one liners??
Guys with kids is just plain bad! Ben /Kate?? Gimme a break!
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My first pick next year is whatever they put in the "Thursday at 8 pm Death Slot". :)
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Here's some advices I could give to people, yes, there's a lucky, gutsy part when you picked your shows but it's way more than simply that.
1- This ain't no personal selection , just because YOU don't like a show , doesn't mean it will be canceled. Being able to do the pros and cons of the shows ,what type of show, who's in it (actors, writers, producers), time slot ... choosing a friday night multi-camera comedy is not wise
2-Taking a look at the ratings also help. For example, the ratings for The New Normal were simply just too high , it was clearly announcing a back 9, so if it was on your list it was easy to just removed it. Watching the ratings for all the new shows allows you to see missed opportunities or rethink about those shows that for a reason or another didn't make your original list.
3-Reviews are just a personal opinion, Tim could make all the positives reviews he wants about a show, if the ratings aren't there ,it won't help.
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Its not about disliking one show or another
Its about green lighting a show with a stupid idea to begin with
like Last Resort
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Those are all true. I would also add:
4-Different networks have different expectations. Lower numbers are fine for some networks, while others have set the bar higher.
5-Different networks are known to announce their cancellations quicker than others.
6-Money matters. Bigger shows that cost a lot of money to produce (expensive locations and CGI) or have big names in the cast have to perform much better. These are cut much quicker than cheap shows. Half hour comedies, especially multi-cam shows, are cheap to make. Some shows are so cheap they can be used pretty much just as filler shows (Malibu Country, I'm looking at you) and even if they do badly they are still cheap enough to keep around.
7-Where is the show placed in the schedule? Is it placed against other well performing shows, or maybe shows that attract the same kind of audience? If three shows that have men as the target audience are placed in the same timeslot, it doesn't matter how popular they are among the audience, they can't all be watched at once.
8-What is plan B if a network pulls the plug on a show? Do the networks have replacement shows? If it's likely that they don't have a show to fill the slot for a cancelled show, then they might allow the underperforming one stay on the schedule. It might be better for your image to have a fresh schedule with new shows even though they are not doing that well and costing you money than to put on reruns at primetime even though they are cheaper.
9-Early buzz. This can be a tricky one and can go both ways. But generally if a show has gained a lot of (positive) attention in beforehand, people will at least watch the pilot. Sometimes though the early buzz might set the expectations so high among the audience that if the show doesn't live up to them, the audience abandons it right away. But a better indication is the lack of buzz. Even if a show has been critically acclaimed and everyone agrees that it's going to be a good show, but it hasn't gotten attention among TV fans and publications, it might not gain enough viewers. That's what I felt about Last Resort this year. It got way too little press considering that it's a big budget show filmed in Hawaii.
10-What is the nature of the show. Complex shows are usually more difficult for the audience to digest.
11-Is the show sandwiched between two shows that are doing well? If that's the case, it might help it survive. Also if the show fills a place in a block of similar shows (e.g. a comedy in the comedy block) it might be kept there despite lower than expected ratings.

But what you said as your first points is important. Last year I did poorly in the Dead Pool, and back then I went with my guts. I tried to figure out just by looking at the shows' descriptions what people might like, and it was heavily influenced by what I felt. That was a bad move. This year I looked pretty carefully at the early ratings and early buzz for shows, and I did a little better. And it's not just the numbers in themselves that matter. It's the direction they are heading in. If the fourth episode of a show still has good ratings,it might not matter if the ratings have dropped 50% since the pilot.
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I would also like to add connections. I hated Guys with Kids so much, I hated it with so much passion that I forgot that Jimmy Fallon has a strong connection with NBC.

I also realized that I hate Jimmy Fallon now. Guys with Kids, uggggh..
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Ended up with 29 points(Darn you The Neighbors), not too bad, and I have a Go On as my tiebreaker. Pretty good for my first year.
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My list:
Made in Jersey
Chicago Fire
Partners
The Mob Doctor
The Neighbors
and tie-breaker full-season pickup choice was: Elementary (a total toss-up of a choice, I had no idea what show the nets would pick up first... obviously.)

I had Animal Practice on my original list and removed it later when it got good reviews, figuring NBC was in such dire straits that they'd hold onto anything with a vague showing of interest, and played the game closer to a business perspective, replacing it with the now-picked-up Chicago Fire which just had the stink of a middling go-nowhere concept and execution attached to an expensive cast and production for a show whose central concept hasn't flown with audiences in decades - obviously that was wrong.

Didn't put Emily Owens on my list because The CW rarely cancels freshman shows before the season's over. I did however keep Mob Doctor on my list because Fox often cancels freshman shows quickly. So imagine my surprise at them eating it the same day..

How didn't more people see Partners and Made in Jersey coming to a fast end? They were both early entries on my list, pretty much the moment the first promos and marketing press releases hit the web. CBS has the strongest normal-viewing ratings (that is, regular shows, not special events like the Olympics which push ratings up) and doesn't muck about when something new shows signs of disturbing the apple cart. Partners I had on my list from day one, it looked generic and unfunny and totally unnecessary; Made in Jersey looked like a mishmash of ideas centered around a concept that was 5 years out of date (fish out of water upcoming executive) and just plain.

Last Resort I knew was going to be canceled, just too expensive, too high concept, too serious, too dependent on a story arc. It looked like a show I would have otherwise invested in but was so sure ABC would can it that I refused to tune in even as it got rave reviews. Yet those same reviews caused me to chicken out and yank it from my Dead Pool at the last minute.

I originally had Guys with Kids on my list, but pulled it when NBC showed rumblings of not cutting any sitcoms because they were cheap, coupled with not having announced a number of potential replacements.

On the flip side, I left The Neighbors on my list because A) it looked bad; B) it looked like a large cast which is expensive yet has no obvious stars; C) it's very high-concept and the early marketing had no statement whatsoever. So I ate it on that choice. But I didn't call Malibu Country mainly because ABC holds onto cheap Friday family sitcoms through whole seasons.
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That's pretty much exactly my list, except replace Neighbors with Malibu county. I also had Animal Practice on my list at one time, especially after hearing that Whitney and Community were "in the stands." I later replaced it with something else.
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Quick question, the tie-breaker is listed in my Dead Pool listing in my profile as my #6 pick, are you guys weeding those #6 votes out of this, or is whatever data system including them as Dead Pool choices in the pie chart as well? Were I running this and had that many entries, I'm sure that's a mistake I would have made and included in this pie chart before having to go back and fix it later.
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You all thought it stunk, and even though The Playboy Club lasted just 3 episodes last season, it was my favourite new show that came out in the fall of 2011.
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Just curious if any one know this. When a show is cancelled but the network allows the remainder of the initial 13 episodes to air (no additional episodes ordered), are the initial 13 episodes already filmed or are there instances where they haven't yet completed filming and the producers, knowing they aren't getting any more than 13, will film a satisfying ending to a short lived show? Must be tough for cast and crew to film knowing they are cancelled.
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It appears my final score is 20, which I guess isn't too bad considering the high number of full-season pickups this season. Unfortunately, I wont win with that though =(
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I'm really sad that Last Resort got cancelled. That is a show that with the right writing team could have had an excellent 22 episodes. If only ABC gave it a chance and moved it to a timeslot that didn't fail many years in a row.
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I worry for the American viewing public.
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I really suck at predicting when shows will get cancelled. I had:
Guys with Kids
The Neighbors
Malibu Country
Made in Jersey
Chicago Fire
I knew Chicago fire was going to see spring as the season progressed, but Malibu Country, The Neighbors, and Guys with Kids all made it through to fall... WTF. The only thing that kept me in the positive digits was Made in Jersey.
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I may not bother with it next year.
I don't think it had anything to do with being able to foretell doom as much as simply getting lucky. It seems all the rules that normally apply to likely cancellations didn't apply this year. It seems it's more practical to just let a show run out 13 episodes than it is to cancel in the middle of a run because they can always sell the show on DVD and claim it was only intended to run 13 episodes anyways.
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they can cancel all the new shows so far
(really terriable Ideas this year like Last Resort)
Arrow may be decent but its not that great
I am still looking forward for "Zero Hour" and "Do No Harm"
maybe they can bring something good to watch this year
or better yet bring back Awake
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Apart from NBC actually keeping their best new comedy for once, which I don't think will become a common occurrence, I pretty much didn't learn a thing. Except that maybe, just maybe, I'm really crap at choosing Dead Pool picks!

I had:
Go On (great show, but I had no faith in NBC) -2
The Mob Doctor +5
The Neighbours -2
Guys With Kids -2 (seriously, what the fuck?)
666 Park Avenue +6
Which gives me a thoroughly unimpressive +5.

Oh well, roll on 2013!
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I learned that I really shouldn't overthink my picks each year.
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Most memorable quote from this year’s “Dead Pool”:

“What in the.....hey, next year, can we do a Zombie Pool in which we pick new series which by all logic SHOULD be killed off, but just won't die?” - wind_shadow

Yep. That about sums it up.

My Picks:

Animal Practice (+8)
Partners (+7)
The Mob Doctor (+5)
Guys with Kids (-2)
The Neighbors (-2)

Tiebreaker: Last Resort (I’m a dreamer, alright?! … I’m a dreamer)

Final Score: 16 Points

I learned not to select your dead pool picks while you’re high. That’s lesson #1. Obviously the only thing on my mind at the time was comedy (4 out of 5). We really should have seen Guys with Kids coming. NBC cannot be trusted. When a show like Whitney gets a second season, god only knows what satanic rituals dictate their renewal processes. The Neighbors was a sleeper with a ridiculous premise, but from what I’ve heard it’s actually not horrible. It was a tough show to dodge. My other picks were fairly popular among the 3000. As katikool wrote, “not bad, but not good either.”

But it was still fun! I definitely plan on competing in next year’s contest. Hopefully more shows that actually deserve to be cancelled will get the axe. This year’s theme of “fuck it, why not” won’t happen again, will it?! (I think I very faintly hear the sound of NBC executives maniacally laughing while bathing in goat’s blood.)
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Can I nominate Whitney as the first entry in the Zombie Pool?
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Absolutely! And I'll nominate every singing competition reality show there is.
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My Picks:
Made in Jersey: +11 points
The Mob Doctor: +5 points
Guys With Kids: -2 points
Malibu Country: - 2 points
Partners: +7 points

Tie-breaker: Go On

Score: 19 Points

Last Resort :'( Animal Practice :(
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Had the exact same picks except for Go On as a tiebreaker.
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I learned to disregard the quality of the shows, and only look at 2 things: cost of the show, and patience of the network. CW will keep bad shows 'cause they're patient and don't expect much. ABC will kill good shows 'cause they're expensive.
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I learned how this deal works. didn't participate last year to my knowledge and this year just randomly made choices. ended up with 19pts.
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I've done some number crunching based on the information on the pie chart.

There were approx 3250 entrants - 61% of all picks were wrong with 39% being right. So the average list would have 3 wrong and 2 right.

Maximum Score available is 39 - to get to that score you would need:
Made in Jersey, Animal Practice, Emily Owens, Partners and either 666 Park Avenue or Last Resort.

44598 points were awarded for correct guesses
19860 points were deducted for incorrect guesses

24738 points available - an average of 7.6 per contestant.

I got 29.
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Thank you for proving math can be awesome.
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Are you making fun of me? And I wasn't doing Math I was doing Maths.
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Thants.
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So, you're one of those "Maths" people. And I wasn't making fun of you. I was simply commenting on the awesomeness of your comment. I enjoyed seeing all the dead pool numbers broken down like that. I realize tone is difficult to convey in text, but your response was a touch on the unnecessarily defensive side.
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Well then it will be easy for me to get the last word in...

I can't think of any words though... BOOM!
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Unnecessarily defensive AND condescending. This will be the last time I respond to one of your comments.
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Well if wars are won with thumbs up then I best not start one because you sir would win.

Hey buddy thanks for the compliment.
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Haha! Now I don't know if YOU'RE joking. The misconstrued compliment that turned into a war. Sounds almost Shakespearean.

And my "This comment has been removed" down there makes it look like I wrote something horrible and your "all out war" comment prompted me to take it down. It was just a typo!
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I think we both need to calm down before this becomes an all out war.
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I learned to never underestimate a comedy that looks absolutely terrible.
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I've learned that quality shows like Last Resort don't stand a chance in this day and age when the attention span of the average TV viewer seems to be less than 30 seconds.
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I know this is an excuse....but I think Last Resort would have done better if it was on a different time (and maybe even different night). Thursdays are highly competitive and Last Resort is not an 8PM show.

Don't blame the TV viewers. It's whoever owns a nielson box :P
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Thats true, it also would of had a better chance if it had been on a channel like HBO or Showtime

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I found it surprising how few people, myself included, didn't put high concept/ serialized shows likes Revolution, Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue in their Dead Pool lists. Sure, Revolution is a hit, but with both Last Resort and 666 Park Avenue being on ABC, it was obvious that one, or in actuality would be cancelled.

I think people also underestimated how lenient networks are with comedies, especially in comparsion to dramas.
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Not only did the top 3 all get renewed, the next 3 were all medical shows. Weird.
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Well 3 out of 5, I honestly thought The Neighbors would definitely get kicked to the curb and Fox would go on a cutting spree like previous years.

Could you also make a pie chart of how many people got a certain amount of shows right? (1 out of 5, 2 out of 5, 3, and so on...)
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I learned that the reason networks are struggling with ratings is exactly this: they don't see their programming through the eyes of the viewers. I mean, we are the ones watching their shows, and still they don't pay attention to OUR guts and feelings about them. How can they expect a show to succeed when we as an audience are giving up on it before it even starts? That should be a big warning sign, but they will still make that show, and they will still air as many episodes of it even when it stinks and nobody's watching.
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I learned we're not very good at this.
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My only two correct guesses were Made in J and Animal Practice. Like pretty much everyone, I voted Guys With Kids and I'm stunned it is still on air. Bring on next year!
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I learned I know nothing about TV. Or the executives know nothing about TV. But they make way more money than me so they come out on top.

Love The Dead Pool! Can't wait until next year!
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Quite surprised that 166 people thought Arrow was going to be cancelled. After the premier ratings, the only way that would happen is if CW execs scheduled so much "frantic hugging and breathless thanking time" that the writers/producers didn't have time to actually make the show.
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I still just can't believe that "Guys With Kids" got orders for more episodes. Anthony Anderson is talented, and he's not the only member of the cast who is, but that show has about 1.25 jokes and they're on incessant repeat. How that stays on, I don't know.
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Today I learned that sometimes people like crappy shows even though, like, EVERYONE knows they are crappy, and just because some people like crappy shows doesn't mean I should think less of them as people. Wait, who I am kidding it totally does mean that! Also, never hinge your Dead Pool on a show featuring Reba.

I think I got 16 points... not bad, but not good either :(
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I understand the new normal has ryan murphy behind it but the show is just SO incredibly offensive to everyone...how did this get picked up? Apparently next year if i think it will be cancelled I should assume the opposite....
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I think I learned that some things change and some never will.
For example: The Mob Doctor. Who'd have thought Fox would let this show stick around for such a long time. I knew they didn't have an alternative, but seriously! After coldheartedly canceling Human Target, Lie to me AND my beloved Chicago Code just one and a half years ago with ratings a little under 2.0, I thought they would at least fill it up with re-runs of Bones, The X-Factor or whatever.
And on the other hand: Made in Jersey. A 1.2 rating on and Friday night is still in this bad season not good enough for CBS.
And the other thing I learned is that in order to actually pick the right shows to be canceled first, you have to be either a little crazy or REALLY lucky:)
Congratulations to whoever wins this! You're damn lucky! (I assume:P)
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I LOVED Emily Owen MD! I can't believe that it got cancelled! I even think that it's better than Greys Anatomy.
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I learnt that next year, my cat should pick!
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