Emmys 2012: And (We Think) the Nominees Will Be...

We have discussed the wonky nature of the ballots, we have made last-minute pleas, but there’s nothing else we can do: The Emmy nominations will be announced this Thursday, July 19, at 8:35am Eastern / 5:35am Pacific. And no matter what or who we would love to see nominated, the Emmy voters are known for their stringent dedication to and admiration of whatever it is they like. The shows and performers we nerds on the internet love usually have a hard time breaking through and grabbing a nomination, which sometimes makes it difficult to separate what we want to happen from what will happen.

Today, I’m going to try to accomplish just that. Below are my predictions in all the major categories, with nominees listed in order of their chance to win, from best to worst. I’ve provided short analysis for the "big" categories and just provided picks for others. Feel free to come back on Thursday to mock my stupidity.


DRAMA

BEST SERIES

Mad Men
Homeland
Downton Abbey
Breaking Bad
The Good Wife
Boardwalk Empire


Just outside: Game of Thrones, Justified, The Walking Dead, Damages


Analysis: There’s a lot of buzz for Homeland and some for Downton Abbey, which is moving over from the TV movie/miniseries category, but I find it very, very tough to believe Mad Men will lose. That sixth spot comes down to Boardwalk Empire, Game of Thrones and Justified; I went with Empire because of its awards track record and perception of prestige.


LEAD ACTOR

Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Jon Hamm, Mad Men
Dustin Hoffman, Luck
Kelsey Grammer, Boss
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire
Hugh Laurie, House


Just outside: Damian Lewis (Homeland), Timothy Olyphant (Justified), Michael C. Hall (Dexter)


Analysis: Probably the most competitive character on the ballot. All nine of these men have legitimate claims to be nominated. Grammer’s an Emmy favorite and Dustin Hoffman is Dustin Hoffman, so they push out Olyphant and Hall (finally). I think Laurie holds on for one final nom, keeping Damian Lewis out of the race. Showtime is putting more of push behind Claire Danes anyway.


LEAD ACTRESS

Claire Danes, Homeland
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men
Glenn Close, Damages
Mariska Hargitay, Law & Order: SVU
Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer


Just outside: Elizabeth McGovern (Downton Abbey), Michelle Dockery (Downton Abbey), Kathy Bates (Harry’s Law), Debra Messing (Smash), Mirelle Enos (The Killing)


Analysis: Another brutal category. Danes is winning this so there’s no real intrigue there, leaving all the questions for nominations. There’s been lots of talk about the Abbey ladies but it’s hard to imagine them pushing out rock-solid mainstays like Hargitay and Sedgwick. Glenn Close is also back, stealing a spot from Kathy Bates.


SUPPORTING ACTOR

Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones
Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad
Giancarlo Esposito, Breaking Bad
John Slattery, Mad Men
Nick Nolte, Luck
Walton Goggins, Justified


Just outside: Andre Braugher (Men of a Certain Age), Mandy Patinkin (Homeland), Neal McDonough (Justified), Alan Cumming (The Good Wife)


Analysis: This race isn’t as insane as it's been years past but it's still darn strong, especially with the Breaking Bad men back in the fray. I’m betting that Aaron Paul and Giancarlo Esposito snag the two spots that went to Good Wife men last year, while Nick Nolte’s great work (and profile) push out Braugher (though he can never be counted out). Dinklage, Slattery and Goggins all remain thanks to much-discussed work.


SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife
Kelly Macdonald, Boardwalk Empire
Anjelica Houston, Smash


Just outside: Anna Gunn (Breaking Bad), Morena Baccarin (Homeland), Rose Byrne (Damages), Megan Hilty (Smash)


Analysis: I’d love for the two ladies from The Good Wife to step aside for more dynamic performances but I can’t imagine it happening. This is a pretty static category, and we can expect a nice competition between Christina Hendricks and Maggie Smith.


WRITING

Meredith Stiehm, Homeland, “The Weekend”
Frank Pierson and Matthew Weiner, Mad Men, “Signal 30”
Julian Fellows, Downton Abbey, “Episode 7”
George R.R. Martin, Game of Thrones, “Blackwater”
Andre and Maria Jacquemetton, Mad Men, “Commissions and Fees”


Just outside: The Good Wife, “Blue Ribbon Panel”; Justified, “Slaughterhouse”


Analysis: Mad Men could have more than two of these slots, honestly. Picking Game of Thrones here is tough considering I’m projecting it to not grab a series nom, which means “Blue Ribbon Panel” would be the most likely candidate to slide in. Breaking Bad, for some reason, has yet to be nominated for writing.


DIRECTING

Michael Cuesta, Homeland, “Pilot”
Neil Marshall, Game of Thrones, “Blackwater”
Gus Van Sant, Boss, “Pilot”
Michael Mann, Luck, “Pilot”
Tim Van Patten, Boardwalk Empire, “To the Lost”


Just outside: Breaking Bad, “Face Off”


Analysis: Directing is very difficult to judge, as the Emmy voters often do weird things (like giving the award to a season finale of Dexter over the grand series finale of Lost two years ago). Pilots are often good bets in this category and both Van Sant and Mann are pretty big, appealing names.


GUEST ACTOR

Andre Braugher, Law & Order: SVU
Mykelti Williamson, Justified
Michael J. Fox, The Good Wife
Matthew Perry, The Good Wife
Robert Morse, Mad Men
Chris Messina, Damages


GUEST ACTRESS

Loretta Devine, Grey’s Anatomy
Jean Smart, Harry’s Law
Lucy Liu, Southland
Julia Ormand, Mad Men
Alexis Bledel, Mad Men
Louise Fletcher, Shameless



COMEDY

BEST SERIES

Modern Family
30 Rock
Parks and Recreation
The Big Bang Theory
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Glee


Just outside: Girls, New Girl, Veep, Louie


Analysis: Listen, I’d love it if this category was full of the likes of Community, Louie, Girls, Archer, Cougar Town, and Happy Endings, but the comedy categories are where Emmy voters seem most off the critical pulse. That means we are likely to see another nomination for Glee—a non-comedy and non-entity as far as quality television is concerned—while middlebrow standbys like 30 Rock, The Big Bang Theory, and Modern Family will continue to dominate (as long as Parks is nominated again).


LEAD ACTOR

Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
Louis C.K., Louie
Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm
Don Cheadle, House of Lies


Just outside: Johnny Galecki (The Big Bang Theory), Tim Allen (Last Man Standing), Will Arnett (Up All Night), Adam Scott (Parks and Recreation)


Analysis: Cryer moves over from the Supporting Actor category, Cheadle arrives, and David returns, joining three nominees from last year. It’s possible that Cheadle doesn’t get the nod and Galecki makes it two years in a row for the Big Bang lead duo.


LEAD ACTRESS

Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Laura Dern, Enlightened
Melissa McCarthy, Mike and Molly
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie


Just outside: Zooey Deschanel (New Girl), Laura Linney (The Big C), Lena Dunham (Girls), Martha Plimpton (Raising Hope)


Analysis: A great year for women in comedy leads to a stuffy, hard-to-predict category. All six of last year’s nominees could return pretty easily, and yet there’s a big slate of new possibilities that deserve recognition as well. This category is so fluid that Melissa McCarthy could slip out of the top six, and she won last year. Julia Louis-Dreyfus is a definite addition and I’m betting that voters take the more recognizable Laura Dern over Zooey D. Many people think this is Poehler’s year but I’m a bit terrified that she won't even get nominated. That’s how stacked this category is.


SUPPORTING ACTOR

Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Ed O’Neill, Modern Family
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
Chris Colfer, Glee
James Spader, The Office


Just outside: Max Greenfield (New Girl), Nick Offerman (Parks and Recreation), Simon Helberg (The Big Bang Theory), Bill Hader (Saturday Night Live)


Analysis: This is another one of those categories that we could fill with all our favorites like Danny Pudi, Nick Offerman, Adam Pally, etc.—and yet it will actually look nearly identical to last year’s race. Never, ever bet against Modern Family. Colfer hangs on because he’s presumed (somewhat rightfully so) to be one of the only remaining good things about Glee and unfortunately James Spader takes the last spot because the Emmy voters love him unconditionally.


SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live
Jane Lynch, Glee
Betty White, Hot in Cleveland
Kathryn Joosten, Desperate Housewives


Just outside: Cloris Leachman (Raising Hope), Jane Krakowski (30 Rock), Kristin Chenoweth (GCB), Cheryl Hines (Suburgatory), Mayim Bialik (The Big Bang Theory)


Analysis: Like the Lead Actress category on the comedy side, this race could look exactly the same last year, or it could be a total mess. I’m leaning toward the former because this is the Emmys we're talking about and it’s naïve to assume change will come. The top five nominees stay the same, with the recently deceased Kathryn Joosten grabbing the hotly contested final spot. If voters don’t feel like they have to honor the deceased, expect Cloris Leachman to nab the last open slot.


WRITING

Steve Levitan, Modern Family, “Treehouse”
Louis C.K., Louie, “Pregnant”
Abraham Higginbotham and Dan O'Shannon, Modern Family, "Aunt Mommy"
Danny Zucker, Modern Family, "Leap Day"
Tina Fey, 30 Rock, “Kidnapped by Danger”


Analysis: Steve Levitan co-wrote the last two winners in this category, so expect him to grab a nomination again, along with at least two other Modern Family scripts. It’s really a random choice game with ModFam and 30 Rock at this point. Both will likely get multiple nominations, with Louis C.K. hopefully hanging on for a second straight year.


DIRECTING

Michael Spiller, Modern Family, "Aunt Mommy"
Steven Levitan, Modern Family, "Baby on Board"
Gail Mancuso, Modern Family, "Leap Day"
Robert B. Wiede, Curb Your Enthusiasm, "Palestinian Chicken"
Beth McCarthy-Miller, 30 Rock, "Live from Studio 6H"


Analysis: More Modern Family domination. These three ModFam directors were all nominated last year, and Spiller won. They will likely all return, as will McCarthy-Miller for her work on the second 30 Rock live show. But there’s a lot of buzz for this Curb episode as well.


GUEST ACTOR

Alan Alda, The Big C
Will Arnett, 30 Rock
Paul Rudd, Parks and Recreation
Jimmy Fallon, Saturday Night Live
Michael J. Fox, Curb Your Enthusiasm
Matthew Bomer, Glee


GUEST ACTRESS

Kathy Bates, Two and a Half Men
Blythe Danner, Up All Night
Mary Steenburgen, 30 Rock
Melissa McCarthy, Saturday Night Live
Maya Rudolph, Saturday Night Live
Ellen Barkin, Modern Family



TV MOVIE/MINISERIES

MOVIE/MINISERIES

Game Change
Hemingway and Gellhorn
American Horror Story
The Hour
Hatfields and McCoys
Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia


Just outside: Great Expectations, Luther


LEAD ACTOR

Clive Owen, Hemingway and Gellhorn
Kevin Costner, Hatfields and McCoys
Woody Harrelson, Game Change
Idris Elba, Luther
Dominic West, The Hour


Just outside: Bill Paxton (Hatfields and McCoys), Bill Nighy (Page Eight), Benedict Cumberbatch (Sherlock)


LEAD ACTRESS

Julianne Moore, Game Change
Nicole Kidman, Hemingway and Gellhorn
Connie Britton, American Horror Story
Emily Watson, Appropriate Adult
Rachel Weisz, Page Eight


Just outside: Romola Garai (The Hour), Emma Thompson (The Song of Lunch)


SUPPORTING ACTOR

Ed Harris, Game Change
David Stratharin, Hemingway and Gellhorn
Michael Gambon, Page Eight
Ralph Fiennes, Page Eight
Powers Boothe, Hatfields and McCoys


Just outside: Martin Freeman (Sherlock), Ray Winstone (Great Expectations)


SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jessica Lange, American Horror Story
Sarah Pulson, Game Change
Judy Davis, Page Eight
Mare Winningham, Hatfields and McCoys
Francis Conroy, American Horror Story


Just outside: Gillian Anderson (Great Expectations )


WRITING

Danny Strong, Game Change
Steven Moffat,
Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia
Jerry Stahl and Barbara Turner, Hemingway and Gellhorn
Bill Kirby, Ted Mann, and Ronald Parker, Hatfields and McCoys (Part 2)
Sarah Phelps, Great Expectations


DIRECTING

Ryan Murphy, American Horror Story
Jay Roach, Game Change
Kevin Reynolds, Hatfields and McCoys
Phillip Kaufman, Hemingway and Gellhorn
David Hare, Page Eight



REALITY/VARIETY

REALITY COMPETITION SERIES

The Amazing Race
American Idol
Top Chef
The Voice
So You Think You Can Dance
Project Runway


Just outside: Dancing with the Stars


REALITY PROGRAM

Deadliest Catch
Antiques Roadshow
Mythbusters
Undercover Boss
Hoarders
Intervention


Just outside: The Pitch, Storage Wars (if there is any justice in the world)


REALITY HOST

Jeff Probst, Survivor
Cat Deeley, So You Think You Can Dance
Tom Bergeron, Dancing with the Stars
Ryan Seacrest, American Idol
Phil Keoghan, The Amazing Race


Just outside: Betty White (Betty White’s Off Their Rockers)


VARIETY SERIES

The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
The Colbert Report
Late Night with Jimmy Fallon
Real Time with Bill Maher
Conan
Saturday Night Live


Just outside: Jimmy Kimmel Live, Late Show with David Letterman


And there you have it folks. What do you think? What will be the big surprises—or disappointments—come Thursday morning?

Comments (77)
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Where is the Late Late show with Craig Ferguson??? Hello people? He is a great talk show host!
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I don't agree with the Drama Series nominations. If Downton Abbey's lackluster second season gets nominated and Game of Thrones' awesome one doesn't, I will throw a temper tantrum. Breaking Bad is my choice to win. Bryan Cranston and Giancarlo Esposito should also walk away with awards. And why no Breaking Bad nomination for Directing? Seriously, every episode could be nominated. As for comedy, I don't really care all that much, but I want Parks and Recreation to win for Best Comedy, even though I'm guessing Modern Family will win.
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God I hate awards shows. So much talent so few awards. It's just awful seeing deserving people shut out by the likes of Mad Men(overrated,btw) and 30 Rock(also overrated) and other Showtime and HBO stuff that's good but is not necessarily better than Network TV's best like The Good Wife which is the best written show of the century IMHO...
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I disagree about Timothy Olyphant being shut out for a return to the Best Actor Drama category.



Kelsey Grammer was a favorite in comedy, not in Drama. Luck was cancelled. Justified's Season 3 was phenomenal on the heels of Season 2, and Olyphant is a big part of that. I predict these two will not be on the list ... and Olyphant and Damien Lewis will be in.



As much as I love Walton Goggins, this season was not his best material. I think Neal McDonough will take that slot this year.
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most of the shows I do not watch,maybe three or four shows
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Here is my wish list for awards in my favorite order, Justified and Timothy Olyphant , The Walking Dead, Sons Of Anarchy, Supernatural, Game of Thrones, Dexter and Michael C Hall, Boardwalk Empire and Steve Buscemi, Fringe and thats all. I dont watch any of the others mentioned. I have tried them all and I dont like them at all. For the comedy I only watch and like The Big Bang Theory and Jim Parsons, and Curb Your Enthusiasm. Guess I am weird but thats all I like on TV. As for the reality shows I dont like any of them. I hate reality shows I done live in the real world. Television take me away..........
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Modern Family... NO!! It's sad because this is so accurate.
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OK, so I don't watch "Revenge", but I'm really surprised to NOT see Emily VanCamp on the list. She's been on everyone else's "must nominate" list, and I'll admit that she is the ONLY good thing about that show, IMO.



I completely agree with CoffeeCake225; where's the "OUaT" love? Carlyle is amazing, and Parrilla is phenomenal.



(I'll admit that, of all the shows on this blog listed for "Best Drama/Comedy", the only one I watch is "Walking Dead".)
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Once Upon a Time deserves some love especially to Lana Parrilla and Robert Carlyle
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http://ryantardiff.wordpress.com/2012/07/18/emmyserie has my thoughts on the comedy categories...
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The sad part is that this list could very well be the actual nomination list.

No love for John Noble, Jason Isaacs (not that I actually thought it possible), or Community.

It's a little sickening actually how much Modern Family reaps in nominations. Like, you're good, but not that good.

But the Emmys are a business too, and they need people to watch, which means they need recognizable nominees. Which sometimes means, they (hopefully) swallow their bile when they write down Glee's name under Comedy awards.



Drama Series I can handle the disappointment better, because the competition is so stacked. All of the actors and series nominated are fantastically talented.



As much as I'd like to see Hugh Laurie take home an Emmy after 8 seasons of work on House (7 noms, 0 wins), I don't see it happening. They didn't do that for Steve Carell, they're not going to do it for Hugh. Especially with Bryan Cranston in the race...
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I agree. Community has been the best comedy on TV over the past 3 years.
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They did it for Kyle Chandler last year (when it was his last chance to win for Friday Night Lights).
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If the Emmys do not give a nod to Robert Carlyle, Lana Parilla, Once Upon a Time or anyone else in the series the Emmys will be one sorry show that I will never watch. Come to think of it, I never pay much attention to what they say anyhow. If it's weird or stupid, chances are the Emmys will love it. As far as I am concerned, Robert Carlyle is best actor in ANY category.
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Your suggestions for best series are horrible. I agree that Mad Men Breaking Bad and should be there even through I don't like the shows. But Homeland and the Goodwife are crap and I've never even heard of Downtown Abbey. Game of thrones had a slow season but it still deserves to be in the top six. I don't like walking dead but its one of the best series too and should be in the top six.



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I guess it's really your problem if you've never heard of Downton Abbey - look outside US every once in a while. And, if you ldon't like Mad Men, Breaking Bad, Homeland and The Good Wife - once again, your bad taste is only your problem. Great shows don't need zombies or non-stop sex and violence, you know. I'm surprised you didn't add True Blood to your wishlist.
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Staff
how do i thumbs down?
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Homeland is crap?



Are you sure this is the same show on your planet?
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Well I guess everybody is entitled to an opinion...
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That's true. And we're also entitled to think bluefish's opinion is that of a four-year-old, too, yah? Because it's pretty sad that someone thinks The Good Wife and Homeland are "crap."
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That's correct; for instance, I couldn't even sit through an entire episode of "Modern Family", yet "everyone else" think it's the greatest thing since sliced bread.
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I'm tired of arguing/complaining about the travesty known as the Emmys so...

*inserts angry comments about nominations here*
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Yeah, I don't even want to think about it. It just makes me angry.
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Homeland should sweep all of the awards it's nominated for.



It won't. But it definitely should.



Not that I don't love a lot of the other shows.



And although I do watch a lot of the reality shows "nominated"...who really cares what wins what? It doesn't make sense to have an award for reality shows.
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The late late show doesn't get any recognition. It's like the Community of late shows. Craig rules
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"It's like the Community of late shows."

You know I always struggled to describe the late late show to someone. Yours, I think, might be the perfect definition :)

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"Feel free to come back on Thursday to mock my stupidity." Oh, we will. WE WILL! Muahahaha!

Just kidding. Even though we try to make informed predictions about the nominations, our guesses will still be affected by our preferences and lack of watching certain quality shows. So the final nominations will be personal choices, and not debatable in an objective way. No reason therefore to mock anyone's picks.

And looking through your selection, I think you have argued well for your choices. I've got nothing really to disagree with, especially since I don't watch some of the more important shows, and as a regular TV viewer it's hard to judge the writing and directing like the nominating committee does. When the final nominations have been announced, then we can start guessing (and betting a lot of money).
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I looked at the staff's self-designated viewing schedules, and they don't watch much TV. So they probably get their ideas from magazines and tv guide, i guess.
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If there's any justice, Jason Isaacs
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I watch all of your drama choices except for The Good Wife. I don't really care for any of the comedies except for Curb Your Enthusiasm, which is the funniest show on tv, and has been since it started.
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The Good Wife is great.
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It may be a long shot, but I am really hoping Awake gets a nom. Especially Jason Isaacs - he played that role beautifully.
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I'd love for Awake and Isaacs to be nominated. So much.
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All the drama selections seem good, but the comedy field is such a cluster-****. I'll be happy as long as Max Greenfield gets a nomination for his role as Schmidt. He made the show New Girl.



It'll be interesting to see if Hatfields & McCoys beats out Sherlock's A Scandal in Belgravia. I mean, talk about an EPIC episode/entry of television. Both were wonderful.
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Give it to Dinklage again!!!
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I'm honestly bored with the idea of these nominations. I feel like the same shows get nominated year after year (with a few substitutions and additions), and I'm honestly not tempted to watch most of these.
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I really hope you're wrong about the best drama series nominees and Game of Thrones is included. The second season was just fantastic and it would be a crime if it was just ignored.



And A Scandal in Belgravia is the front running Sherlock nominee? I thought The Reichenbach Fall was the better episode.
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It's a toss-up between Game of Thrones and Boardwalk, I think. I went with my gut, even if I probably liked the former's second season more than the latter.
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Please let Martha Plimpton be nominated!!!
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The saddest thing is that I don't think I watch any shows that have been seriously nominated. That either means I have poor taste (and while I might be biased, I'm pretty sure that isn't the case) or the Emmys are just another awards show that goes for the "safe pick" rather than the "right pick". I feel like I'm being cynical here, but c'mon. I'm a little bitter you didn't even mention John Noble as a 'just outside' candidate.
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So let me get this straight. You write off all of the nominees as essentially being the "wrong pick," while simultaneously admitting that you haven't watched any of them. Perhaps if you gave them a chance you would see that these are actually some of the best shows on TV and deserve to be nominated just as much as shows you like.
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I wish Noble was just outside. But that's a stacked category and he simply won't register. It's a travesty, it really is, yet, it's the truth.
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The only show/cast I'm supporting this year is The Good Wife.
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Breaking Bad better win something, and I hope Mad Men doesn't win best drama AGAIN. BB is much better, and Homeland totally beat it as well.
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Sherlock A Scandal of Belgravia is one of the finest pieces of TV this year.
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I hope that new girl gets a few nominations. All three of the guys deserve supporting nominations. I am also sick of Modern Family. it is a decent show, I will give you that, but It is not the amazing , magical show that the awards show seem to think it is.



Also, is it too much to ask that for just one year the emmy's step outside of the box and nominate Jim Beaver for his work as Bobby Singer on Supernatural. Especially for his work in the episode Death's Door .
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Wow. Not even you mention John Noble? Not even on the 'just outside' bit? Shame on you sir.



Homeland deserves anything coming its way. It was a brutally awesome first season.



Drama is complicated, some of those in my opinion are on par with each other in brilliance, even if they are completely different. That said, I never thought Boardwalk Empire was on this category. Is it good? Yes, but definitely not brilliant. A show that clearly feels the weight of having a thousand characters with wicked personalities that get lost in the show itself. Hopefully Breaking Bad does get the nod though.



I'd like to see Justified get something sometime. The show is all kinds of amazing, specially on the dialogue part.



Finally, I'm really sad that Archer doesn't make the cut in any area it seems. It's a show ahead of its time, with humour unlike anything else out there. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see community get some praise, but I have to admit that to me personally, the show sometimes gets lost within its own self-indulgence. Archer is just, consistently brilliant. Big Bang Theory, 30 Rock, and Modern Family do nothing but hit themselves with the same formula. Hell, Girls is way better on non-shallow material than any of these three. I guess humour needs to be extra silly to be worth something for the emmys.



Again though, no mention of John Noble? Really?
More+
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Predictions, not personal preference.
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Pretty sure Justified is there on preference. Never seen it being nominated for anything except outstanding guest start last year. I might be wrong though. And again, I was only hoping he'd be mentioned in the 'just outside', because I already lost hope of any justice being done to that man in the actual awards.
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Justified had a handful of nominations last year, more than Fringe has ever had. I wrote a few weeks ago that I'd love for nothing more than Noble to be nominated. He just won't. And Justified is simply closer to that series nomination than Noble is in a super-tough category.
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Timothy Olyphant was deservedly nominated for Best Actor Drama last year. I predict he'll get a 2nd nomination. Season 3 of Justified was THAT good. (Especially on the heels of the phenom Season 2 ... not easy to pull off.)
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Yes you're wrong. Margo Martindale won for Best Supporting Actress in 2011.
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Sorry Tim, but that's what I meant with 'except outstanding guest start last year'. My bad on the language. I knew about Margo, I'm just saying I've never seen it nominated for best Drama, hence why the 'just outside' was a hopeful thought on this series. In the same manner, so should've been John Noble on this list.
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Pretty good picks. Hopefully the real ones look like this.

.
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Snore. Yawn. Boo, Emmys.



As you can see, I'm pessimistic about all things Emmys.



Good guesses on the nominees. I have a feeling Damian Lewis will make it for Lead Actor, maybe over Laurie or Buscemi.
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I can only hope for a miracle the Emmys are as kind to Community as the Pan-American Assoc of Film and TV Journalists (PAAFTJ) were this year. They received 10 nominations and won for Best Comedy, Best Writing, Best Directing, and Best Cast.
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I really hope Kristen Wiig gets her due.
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soo tired of fucking modern family being so fucking overrated, while parks, louie, community etc goes ahoy as the most underrated, yet the best
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Wow...so many surprises... Somebody restart my heart...
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I don't think Glee is going to be nominated. Or at least I hope no. Louie should take that spot.
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I wish Community would take/win that spot :(
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Best directing SHOULD go to Breaking Bad's Crawl Space. Actually any episode from that show could win best directing, hands down. I could go on about that cinematography for weeks.
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Reading your predictions is infuriating mostly because I think you are correct in whats going to happen. I did not enjoy this season of Modern Family. Happy Endings, Big Bang Theory, Community, and Parks and Rec all made me laugh a lot more and deserve to win over Modern Family and two of those shows probably won't even get nominated. Nick Offerman deserves a spot, he is perfect as Ron Swanson and I would be pleased if Simon Helberg got in but thats a long shot.

I really hope a miracle happens and the nominations will look like the Critics Choice Awards, those were near spot on.
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I don't care too much for award shows anymore. Most of the shows and people who win I don't even watch. I usually take an Emmy win as a sign not to tune it. There are a few exceptions to that though-like Big Bang Theory.
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I understand no Community, but Remedial Chaos Theory not getting a Writing nod?! BS! It should win! Also, John Noble deserves at least 1 nod before Fringe ends
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If Mad Men wins best drama over Breaking Bad AGAIN... I just might vomit. Yes I love Mad Men, but it doesn't even come close to comparing to the greatness that is Breaking Bad. This season of Mad Men wasn't anything special anyway, while Breaking Bad continues to get greater and greater and greater!
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Season 3 of Breaking should have won.
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Jon Cryer was very well in recent seasons.
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No Revenge or Once Upon a Time?
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Remember, this is a prediction of who will show up based on Emmy trends, not his personal tastes. As good as Revenge or Once Upon a Time, they're not the kind of thing that the Emmys would select, and I don't say that with any intention of dissing their quality.
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You really think those old men are going to nominate Revenge or Once Upon a Time?
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I'd rather have a Justified nomination.
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perfectly elaborated analysis, well done mate...
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this is why I hate the emmys, they always keep the same shows around while hardly acknowledging the shows that actually deserve it. mad men is good, but not win every year it's on good. There were years where i couldn't believe that they beat out phenomenal seasons of breaking bad, dexter, or lost. And while season 4 was easily breaking bad's best season, it should be no surprise that it'll lose. also the fact that they could shower modern family -- a half decent comedy at best --with nominations while failing to acknowledge smart shows like Curb and Community is absolutely disgusting. i also want sherlock to take home everything in the miniseries category, but that most likely won't happen either.
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The biggest disappointment will be no love for Fringe (especially John Noble), but it will hardly be surprising, despite how much of a travesty it is.
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