Emmys 2012: Rapid, Probably Premature Winner Predictions

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Well, the Emmy nominations are out. Please, take time in the comments to make fun of me and my nomination predictions from earlier in the week. Based on my math, I correctly guessed 99 of the 151 picks I made, which is an okay 65 percent rate. In the major categories (series, lead, and supporting actor in comedy, drama, and miniseries/TV movie), I fared better, getting 59 of my 86 correct.

Suffice it to say, Downton Abbey screwed me. I underestimated its popularity with voters—and perhaps overestimated their allegiance to veteran performers in the acting races—and that’s something I’ll be taking into account right now. Because even though the Emmy winners aren’t announced for three months, it’s never too early to make predictions. You know, so I can look like a fool again.

Here we go, these are your 2012 Emmy winners, with some more detailed thoughts for the big 10 categories:


DRAMA

SERIES

Will win: Mad Men

Could win: Downton Abbey, Homeland

Calling this a three-show race is probably being too nice, and in the case of Abbey, too reactive to this week’s nominations. There was/is a lot of buzz for Homeland, buzz that was generally confirmed by the noms. The good news is that voters will be asked to watch more episodes before picking a winner, something that should, theoretically, benefit Homeland and perhaps discredit Abbey’s chances. Ultimately though, it doesn’t matter. If Mad Men loses this, it will be the biggest shock of the night.


LEAD ACTRESS

Will win: Claire Danes (Homeland)

Could win: Juliana Margulies (The Good Wife), Kathy Bates (Harry’s Law)

This race has felt over since the middle of Homeland’s first season. Yet, most of us thought that Julianna Margulies would run away with it after the first season of The Good Wife in 2010 and Kyra Sedgwick won, making Margulies wait a year. Maybe that happens here, but it feels even less likely this go-round. Danes already won for Temple Grandin, and she’s winning again.


LEAD ACTOR

Will win: Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad)

Could win: Jon Hamm (Mad Men), Steve Buscemi (Boardwalk Empire), Damian Lewis (Homeland), Hugh Bonneville (Downton Abbey)

Interesting things afoot here. Buscemi won a Golden Globe for his Boardwalk performance, so he’s still a threat to take home the award. Damian Lewis and Hugh Bonneville could both be swept up in larger waves of support for their respective shows, so we can’t count them out either. And for the love of all things that are holy, Jon Hamm has been deserving of this award for at least three years. BUT, Cranston.


SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win: Maggie Smith (Downton Abbey)

Could win: Christina Hendricks (Mad Men), Anna Gunn (Breaking Bad)

Maggie Smith’s performance has the most generic buzz of all the Abbey cast and she won this award in the miniseries/TV movie race last year. There’s a swell of support for Christina Hendricks and she deserves it, but the academy has a weird resistance toward celebrating Mad Men performers. Conversely, the academy loves giving Breaking Bad actors awards, so it makes sense that now that Anna Gunn finally got nominated, she could win.


SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Aaron Paul (Breaking Bad)

Could win: Giancarlo Esposito (Breaking Bad), Peter Dinklage (Game of Thrones)

UGH, this race. Choosing between the two Breaking Bad men is hard enough but with last year’s winner Dinklage, Jared Harris’s “dead guy” juice and the looming Downton Abbey dynasty, this is a tough crapshoot. Both Aaron Paul’s and Dinklage’s performances were more leading than supporting and the former’s was probably the best on all of television for this time period. In a perfect world, I’d say that Giancarlo Esposito would win in his last attempt, leaving Paul and Dinklage to fight it out for a few more years. But this is the Emmys, and the voters hate perfect worlds. Going with my gut here.


GUEST ACTRESS

Will win: Loretta Devine (Grey’s Anatomy)

Could win: Jean Smart (Harry’s Law), Uma Thurman (Smash)


GUEST ACTOR

Will win: Mark Margolis (Breaking Bad)

Could win: Michael J. Fox, Dylan Baker (The Good Wife)


WRITING

Will win: Julian Fellows (Downton Abbey)

Could win: Semi Chellas & Matthew Weiner (Mad Men); Alex Gansa, Howard Gordon, Gideon Raff (Homeland)


DIRECTING

Will win: Michael Cuesta (Homeland)

Could win: Vince Gilligan (Breaking Bad), Tim Van Patten (Boardwalk Empire)



COMEDY

SERIES

Will win: Modern Family

Could win: LOL

Come on.


LEAD ACTRESS

Will win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Veep)

Could win: Zooey Deschanel (The New Girl), Melissa McCarthy (Mike and Molly)

This race is competitive as hell. So competitive that the voters nominated an extra lady. I could picture at least six of these women winning and the one that I can’t is the one who deserves it most (sorry, Poehler). Fey, McCarthy, Falco, and Louis-Dreyfus are all former winners and Lena Dunham and Zooey D. are big, buzzy first-time noms. Fey and Falco are probably the least likely of those six to win, and it’s tough to picture Dunham winning here (she might take home an award elsewhere). That leaves McCarthy (last year’s surprise winner), Zooey, and Louis-Dreyfus as our front-runners. Veep feels like an Emmy show, and the voters love Julia, so I’m picking her, though the other two should have good tapes.


LEAD ACTOR

Will win: Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory)

Could win: Alec Baldwin (30 Rock), Jon Cryer (Two and a Half Men), Don Cheadle (House of Lies)

Jon Cryer’s the biggest dark horse here. He’s a nomination staple and former winner on the supporting side, so his move up to leading-man territory could result in a win. But it will be tough for him to push past even more popular nominees Parsons and Baldwin. I’m just working on the assumption that Jim Parsons wins this race until Big Bang ends in 10 years. He’s this decade’s Kelsey Grammer.


SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win: Mayim Bialik (The Big Bang Theory)

Could win: Julie Bowen, Sofia Vergara (Modern Family)

Another tough one, particularly when you think bigger picture. Kathryn Joosten just passed away, which, for better or for worse, makes her a threat to win. This is the last time Kristen Wiig can be nominated in this category for her work on SNL (she’ll surely be nominated when she comes back to host the show in a year). Mayim Bialik’s work is well-regarded and voters will get a great taste of it while they’re watching episodes of Big Bang for other categories. And obviously, the Modern Family women are here too. Sorry, Merritt Weaver.

Joosten’s nomination will probably be as far as that goes. People thought Wiig was going to win last year because of Bridesmaids and we’ve seen recent long-time nominees lose yet again in final opportunities. But I’m struggling to pick between Bowen, Vergara, and Bialik. Bowen and Bialik should have better tapes and there’s bound to be a moderate surprise in these major categories, so let’s go with the Big Bang star.


SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Ty Burrell (Modern Family)

Could win: Eric Stonestreet, Ed O’Neill (Modern Family)

Shocker, another Modern Family-centric race. Burrell is a strong incumbent and of the show’s performers, he’s the most worthy. But Stonestreet has another Fizbo episode and Ed O’Neill is Ed O’Neill. It’s surely going to be one of these three, though.


GUEST ACTRESS

Will win: Kathy Bates (Two and a Half Men)

Could win: Melissa McCarthy, Maya Rudolph (Saturday Night Live)


GUEST ACTOR

Will win: Jimmy Fallon (Saturday Night Live)

Could win: Michael J. Fox (Curb Your Enthusiasm), Greg Kinnear (Modern Family)


WRITING

Will win: Michael Schur (Parks and Recreation)

Could win: Louis C.K. (Louie), Lena Dunham (Girls)


DIRECTING

Will win: Louis C.K. (Louie)

Could win: Steve Levitan, Jason Winer (Modern Family)



MINISERIES/TV MOVIE

SERIES

Will win: Game Change

Could win: Hemingway & Gellhorn, Hatfields & McCoys


LEAD ACTRESS

Will win: Julianne Moore (Game Change)

Could win: Nicole Kidman (Hemingway & Gellhorn)


LEAD ACTOR

Will win: Woody Harrelson (Game Change)

Could win: Clive Owen (Hemingway & Gellhorn), Kevin Costner (Hatfields & McCoys), Idris Elba (Luther)


SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win: Jessica Lange (American Horror Story)

Could win: Frances Conroy (American Horror Story), Sarah Paulson (Game Change)


SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Ed Harris (Game Change)

Could win: David Straithairn (Hemingway & Gellhorn)


WRITING

Will win: Danny Strong (Game Change)

Could win: Steven Moffat (Sherlock); Ted Mann, Ronald Parker, Bill Kirby (Hatfields & McCoys)


DIRECTING

Will win: Jay Roach (Game Change)

Could win: Phillip Kauffman (Hemingway & Gellhorn)



REALITY/VARIETY


REALITY COMPETITION SERIES

Will win: The Amazing Race

Could win: Top Chef, The Voice


REALITY HOST

Will win: Phil Keoghan (The Amazing Race)

Could win: Betty White (Betty White’s Off Their Rockers), Tom Bergeron (Dancing With The Stars)


VARIETY SERIES

Will win: The Daily Show with Jon Stewart

Could win: Late Night with Jimmy Fallon, The Colbert Report



Make your own winner predictions in the comments!



Cory Barker is a co-founder of This Was Television and the founder of TVSurveillance.com. Follow him on Twitter: @corybarker.

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