The great trivia contest between man and machine is upon us. Tonight marks the debut of the three-episode run that pits Jeopardy!'s two greatest champions, Ken Jennings and Brad Rutter, against not only each other but also Watson, a computer IBM spent four years developing for this very purpose. But though all three contestants are angling to have the highest total after the third day of competition, the humans and the machine will go at it very differently. Here's some strategy to watch for tonight.
** Look for Watson to make strange wagers when it hits Daily Doubles, something it did in practice rounds. "I think they plugged in some game theory," Rutter says. It's very possible that a very smart computer could consider its confidence level and make a bet that maximizes its possible advantage but makes little sense to us. Jennings isn't so convinced. "I ran into an ex-IBM employee who said he recommended they program Watson to choose arbitrary numbers," he says. "Solely to confuse the humans."
** There's often something of a psychological intimidation element to the game when Jennings and Rutter play: They may choose tough categories early, for instance, to go on tears and bully Jeopardy! amateurs. Don't expect this to play too big of a role this week, though. Jennings and Rutter are friendly with each other, they're both old hats at the game, and they're clearly at ease with their Jeopardy! legacies. Besides, even third place still pays $200,000. And obviously, Watson can't get intimidated.
** Rutter noticed in practice matches that Watson would choose questions randomly among the bottom three rows. "It was hunting for Daily Doubles," he says. "The average player goes from top to the bottom. That's what I usually do." Jennings, however, thinks a human needs to take chances to win, meaning a strategy like Watson's. "You have to play Daily Doubles, and bet aggressively."
** The humans will try to control the game via category selection. Jennings noticed that Watson "seems to struggle on clues that are very short on length. It's not as fast as we are, despite being the size of an RV." Rutter plans to seek categories that indicate ambiguous phrasing, hoping those will confuse the machine. "'Before and After' is a category we'd choose, rather than 'European Capitals,'" he says.
** It's common for multiple Jeopardy! contestants to know the right answer, but obviously only one can buzz in first. This kind of bottleneck will be in full force this week. Since computers can buzz in at, you know, the speed of light, Watson is restricted with a slight signal delay to give the humans a competitive advantage. Besides, Watson's processes aren't instantaneous, and it's programmed to only buzz in if it's confident it can answer correctly—meaning there are times when humans come up with the answer first. Expect all three players to be fighting to buzz in on most questions.
** With any luck, we'll be treated to a couple hilariously wrong answers from Watson, reminding us that despite how smart it may seem, it's not perfect yet. Take the favorite mishap of David Gondek, who leads Watson's strategy team. During a practice round, in response to the answer "Bottoms Up!: It's made with equal amounts of champagne and orange juice," Watson answered, "Breakfast."
** When Rutter, Jennings, and Watson competed in an exhibition match for the media a few weeks ago, Watson had the highest score, but certainly didn't run away with the game. My money's on a few categories confusing Watson and the humans taking those wholesale, but the computer still winning by a clear margin. "Watson did play slightly differently in the practice rounds, then became more of a killer instinct player in the actual game," Jennings says. "[Writer] Steven Baker said that Alex Trebek was a little pissed off that Watson seemed to be a pool hustler."
The three-day Jeopardy! tournament between Watson, Rutter, and Jennings begins tonight, February 14, and runs through Wednesday, February 16.
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