Which New Fall Show Will Be Canceled Next?

The beginning of the fall television season is always so full of life, as new shows enter our living rooms with a spring in their step and promise on the horizon. But then, just a week later, the dark clouds inevitably roll in and death fills the air, his icy fingers poised above the cancellation button.

The Circle of Life for television shows is cruel: The business is at the mercy of an antiquated ratings system, nebulous DVR figures, internet piracy, and the whimsy of executives looking for ways to milk a show for other revenue streams. In short, being a new show ain't easy.

Lone Star was critically adored but invisible to American viewers, and was canceled just after it scratched out a 0.9 rating among the adult demo. But which new show is next on the chopping block? Let's take a look at the candidates to see who is in trouble based on early ratings, network trends, and pure guesswork.


As Good As Gone

Outlaw

The data: Premiere episode - 10.69 million viewers, 2.3/7 (special Wednesday air time). Second episode - 4.99 million viewers, 1.1/4 (regular Friday time slot).
The analysis: Look at that drop!
The hunch: This stands no chance. Goodbye, Mr. Smits, your show may not even make it to the second week of October.
UPDATE (October 11): NBC has halted production on the show and moved it to Saturdays, where it will ride off into the sunset.

Running Wilde

The data: Premiere episode - 5.87 million viewers, 2.5/7. Second episode - 4.73 million, 2.1/5.
The analysis: While Raising Hope goes up, Running Wilde goes down. Not good.
The hunch: The show is in big trouble. It will be canceled, it's just a matter of when.

The Whole Truth

The data: Premiere episode - 4.91 million viewers, 1.5/4.
The analysis: This one is pretty obvious, don't you think?
The hunch: Never stood a chance. Should be next to go.
UPDATE (October 26): Will finish its 13-episode order, but that's it. Canceled.

My Generation

The data: Premiere episode - 5.22 million, 1.6/5.
The analysis: The show got killed on Thursday night, and it's not looking good for any upward bump.
The hunch: People are going to try to put this down... talkin' 'bout My Generation. Should be ABC's second cancellation.
UPDATE (October 2): After doing terribly in Week 2, My Generation has earned the honor of being ABC's first cancellation of the season and the second cancellation overall after Lone Star.


In Danger

Chase

The data: Premiere episode - 7.94 million viewers, 2.5/7 rating/share. Second episode - 6.3 million viewers, 2.1/6
The analysis: It's not going to beat its timeslot competition (Castle, Hawaii Five-0), but it is on NBC, which has other things to worry about.
The hunch: Not going anywhere soon, but its chances for continuing beyond its 13-episode order are 50-50. As for a Season 2? No way.
UPDATE (October 20) Miraculously picked up for a full season, which says more about the state of NBC than it does this show.

Better With You

The data: Premiere episode - 7.97 million viewers, 2.5/7 rating/share. Second episode - 7.057 million viewers, 2.1/6
The analysis: A decent-sized drop for Week 2. If this goes under 2.0 next week, it's in big trouble.
The hunch: This is the weak link for ABC's comedy block. The network surely has something on the back burner that's ready to fill the spot.
UPDATE (October 25): Picked up for a full season.

Undercovers

The data: Premiere episode - 8.57 million viewers, 2.0/6. Second episode (approximated) - 7.00 million, 1.6/5
The analysis: The buzz on this J.J. Abrams show outweighed the results. And a sub-2.0 rating from Abrams isn't what NBC expected.
The hunch: This won't get its back nine episodes picked up, but if NBC is smart, it'd let Undercovers run out its initial 13-episode order, if only to keep a good relationship with Abrams.


Safe... For Now

$#*! My Dad Says

The data: Premiere episode - 12.48 million viewers, 3.9/12. Second episode yet to appear.
The analysis: The show was thumped by critics and fans alike. But it's on CBS, which draws viewers like old moths to a flame, and it's got The Big Bang Theory as a lead-in. Were the impressive premiere numbers simply a result of curiosity?
The hunch: The numbers will go down, but probably not enough to get this canceled. Plus it's cheap to make. That all points to a full season. As for a Season 2? It's very possible; hey, According to Jim ran for eight.
UPDATE (October) Picked up for a $*#!ing full season.

Hellcats

The data: Premiere episode - 2.99 million viewers, 1.2/3.
The analysis: Remember, this is the CW. This was a great premiere.
The hunch: If the network renewed Life Unexpected, it'll renew this.
UPDATE (October 24): Picked up for a full season, ra-ra-ra!

The Event

The data: Premiere episode - 11.19 million viewers, 3.7/9. Second episode - 9.06 million, 2.9/7
The analysis: The second-week drop was expected, and the fact that the numbers didn't completely crumble is a good sign. There's good buzz about the show drowning out the detractors, but viewers are notoriously picky with serialized sci-fi dramas.
The hunch: Lost hovered around 9 million viewers during much of its final season, and this is hit-starved NBC we're talking about. It's in for a full season, and probably for a second as well. NBC's biggest new show by far.
UPDATE (October 20) Picked up for a full season.

Raising Hope

The data: Premiere episode - 7.48 million viewers, 3.1/8. Second episode - 7.48 million, 3.2/9.
The analysis: The numbers actually went up? Fox wants a successful live-action comedy so badly, and this could be it.
The hunch: This is good for the season and probably next as Fox builds a new comedy empire.
UPDATE (October 6) Fox has picked up the show for a full season, the first new show to receive such an order.

Outsourced

The data: Premiere episode - 7.44 million viewers, 3.5/9.
The analysis: The great premiere numbers have to be an anomaly. The curiosity won't last this week. I expect a big drop-off for Episode 2.
The hunch: Don't be fooled by the first week's numbers. With Parks and Recreation waiting in the wings, Outsourced should be on a short leash. But then again... a 3.5? It did much better than both Community and 30 Rock. Expect NBC to ride this one as long as it can.
UPDATE (October 20) Picked up for a full season.

The Defenders

The data: Premiere episode - 12.09 million viewers, 2.9/8.
The analysis: It's on CBS. It's in a non-competitive 10:00 pm timeslot. It's got Jim Belushi. Hey, two out of three sometimes works in this business.
The hunch: There's a very good chance this could be on for a while. Jim Belushi says, "Thank you."
UPDATE (October 21) Picked up for a full season.

Detroit 1-8-7

The data: Premiere episode - 9.75 million viewers, 2.4/7. Second episode - 8.18 million, 2.0/6.
The analysis: Another ABC cop drama and similar results. Middling. Not great, not bad. But good enough for now.
The hunch: It won't be a hit, but it won't be a total bomb. Look for this to go a full season and be a bubble show for return next year, which it probably won't.
UPDATE (October 25): Granted four extra episodes. Full-season pickup pending?


Should Live a Long, Happy Life

Hawaii Five-0

The data: Premiere episode - 13.83 million viewers, 3.8/10. Second episode - 12.72 million viewers, 3.6/10.
The analysis: Nothing to fear here.
The hunch: CBS does it again. Almost guaranteed for Season Two.
UPDATE (October 21) Picked up for a full season.

Mike & Molly

The data: Premiere episode - 12.24 million viewers, 3.9/10. Second episode - 11.12 million viewers, 3.7/9.
The analysis: Not much of a drop at all. The Two and a Half Men lead-in should do nothing but help this show.
The hunch: Barring any unforeseen disasters, expect Mike & Molly to go the distance.
UPDATE (October 21) Picked up for a full season.

Nikita

The data: Most recent episode - 3.22 million, 1.1/3.
The analysis: Most other CW shows hover around 2 million viewers. 1.1 is nothing to get excited about, but it's pretty standard for this network.
The hunch: Looking pretty safe for now.
UPDATE (October 24): Picked up for a full season.



Remember, the networks will make the final decisions. These hunches are purely that—hunches. Who can really get into the head of a network executive?

What shows do you think are in trouble? And what shows do you think SHOULD be canceled?



Follow TV.com writer Tim Surette on Twitter: @TimAtTVDotCom

Comments (240)
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i would say that nikita is way better than csi:ny or blue blood.
whoever said nikita should be cancelled should at least watch the whole episode before judging the show.
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nikita should definatly not be cancelled
hell cats or my dad said should be cancelled.
but hell no to nikita
i am so hype up to watch it
i love it so much that i watched each episode 5 times.
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nikita is the best show ever
at first i didnt like nikita but only because i never watched it when i started watching it it was worth watching the hell cats and better than supernaturlal. i just cant wait for episode 17 on nikita. if they delete nikita they are losing there mind. that show should have a happy ending.
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watch this clip --- http://www.nbc.com/chase/video/ep-111-death-becomes-her/1263645/ --- and I dare you to tell me Chase sucks
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The biggest surprise to me this season is Hawaii 5-0 - really expected that to last less than 6 episodes when I heard they were remaking but then I gave it try and have to admit I like the show.
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I really don't like Nikita -- not really sure why -- the premise is OK -- but it bores me like Dollhouse did last season. I really love Chuck and hope it stays. But then again shows I loved last season --- Eli Stone and Dirty Sexy Money and Heroes all bit the dust.
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The Hollywood Reporter just reported that Undercovers isn't getting a full season pick-up and has been canceled.
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silly Nikita, dull undercovers, and the preaching badly No ordinary family...this season is all about disappoint !
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Hasn't Jamie King become a series killer by now?
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wow, I've only see one of these programs, . . . at least it's safe for now, . . . but it isn't such an event.
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enjoying Undercovers, Nikita, Mike & Molly, The Event, Raising Hope, and Hawaii 5-0
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I'm surprised at the lack of cancellations this year. It seems the networks are desperate for anything to air. Or maybe they just didn't develop enough shows.
Undercovers does seem to be keeping it's head above water, but it's still slipping each week. The writing isn't great but it's still reasonably enjoyable. And a couple of NBC's new shows that did get a full season are still falling.
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Too bad about Running Wilde, pretty much the only show amongst these that seemed at all worth watching for me, but glad to know I don't need to waste my time on it now.
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seriously, Tim, that you are a writer on this site, to quote Tim Surette, "says more about the state of" this website "than it does" you.
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I do not know all these shows. I am waiting only for Hawaii Five-o and hope that it wiil be a good show.
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No Ordinary Family is pretty bad too. Watered down Heroes and that is not a good thing.
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Hellcats, Uncovers and Nikita are horrible shows. Lets hope they are gone soon.
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As for me, I just want The Unit back... :(
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I'm sooo glad tha Hawaii Five-0, The Event and Nikita were all picked up for a full season!!! :D
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I still don't understand how the eff Outsourced was picked up for a full season?!?!?!
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what do i think should be canceled? Nikita, Chase, S#*! My Dad Says, Outsourced, Detroit 1-8-7 along with any other cop and law show. new or not. probably more but aren't listed here so i can't think of them. i'm more concerned about the good existing shows that these new pickups will disrupt, like Parks & Recreation, 30 Rock, and Community.
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well, all the good shows are safe, so no issues here. happy happy camper, sweet
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am enjoying 4 new shows this fall. Hellcat,nikita,the event and no ordinary family
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I am enjoying Outsourced very much and I am not giving up on The Event...yet.
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I hear lonestar is gone it that true, also have we heard anything on the new law & order la, absolutely love blue bloods, defenders, $#*! My Dad Says. Are there some new shows still to start couldnt find body of proof.
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i love mike and molly , event, nikita but olso love raising hope and outsourced :) all of them have great potential :)
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shows that i love that r on their last season is medium,smallville,and supernatural.i just hope burn notice,fringe,nikita,no ordinary family,and undercovers have along life...but my favorite show this season is no ordinary family its doing pretty well.
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I really want to know how No Ordinary Family is scoring. I like this serie, it's like the new heroes. I am also following Nikita I like the fighting scenes and nice cats chosen for this serie.
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Why are they keeping Mike & Molly on the schedule? Must be desperate for a sitcom hit, even if the show stinks on ice.
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I figured My Generation didn't have a chance overall. But I wanted to see how the season ended before it was canceled.
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What about Blue Bloods? Hope it stays. Tom Selleck is still hot as ever.
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Outlaw would have been great if they had given Jimmy Smits a better cast and character dynamics. He's the only reason I watch it.

Chase has some great potential, but why put it up against 5-0 and (more importantly) Castle.They just need to keep plugging away...maybe move to another non-graveyard night. The Event is really good, I'm just worried about their plot pacing. Hard to see how they're going to make a season out of this-let alone more- without really quick shark jumping.

Detroit 187 is one of the best cop shows in a loooong time. It's AWESOME and reminds me alot of Homicide:life on the streets without the fancy directing. It probably will go bye-bye because nobody listens to Motown anymore. It probably does hit an older demo.

Undercovers is the worst show I've seen in a while, maybe ever. The characters are all annoying and the plots are thin. Hawaii 5-0 has potential but the scenarios are just all too perfect. Really? They call this guy "commander" and let him police on a state level. Really convenient that he's a SEAL and Naval Intel. The main thing this show has going is the scenery, landscape and otherwise. They need to beef it up a bit and make it more plausible.

One thing for all action shows, gotta have realism for suspension of disbelief. In this age you can't have cops and spies running around like idiots and not expect folks to be annoyed.
More+
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My Generation is horrible and my humble opinion is that what is sinking the ship is the documentary look and feel they are going for. Had it just been an hour long drama in the style of say Brothers & Sisters we'd be more interested in the show and the characters. I wish the cast the best, they are simply great.
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Undercovers is the worst show on TV this season. Even crap reality shows are better than watching these two idiots. The cast is weak the glamor and flash is ridiculous. I absolutely hate this show. Mike & Molly is bad two fat people that is what America needs to see. I don't care about the cast on that show either its weak. The Whole Truth is another seen it all before show with a somber cast as well.
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I really like HAWAII 50 and UNDERCOVERS and HELLCATS
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A pale horse rides pass No Ordinary Family, Nikita, Mike & Molly and Hawaii Five-0. The rider summons a scythe from the dead ground its horse now stands on, Death swings at the rest of the shows and its life... cancels.
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I have been watching - No Ordinary Family - and would like to see it continue.
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The New Hawii Five O is not as good as the old one and doesn't have any new kind of material that isn't in the other cop shows. I like Blue Bloods because of the Family theme and its struggles in the real world without using strong language and very much violence. Thank you. You missed talking about the show, No Ordinary Family. How is it doing?
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I really like "Nikita", i think the episodes are well written and well directed. The action scenes are very well done and Maggie Q and Linsay Fonseca on the same show?? I mean... HOOOOT!!!
No mention to "No Ordinary Family"??? I think it's a great show, i'd love to see where it's going so i'm in for a whole season, even a second. Just lets hope it doesnt lost it's direction like "Heroes" wich, no matter what every one says, it is and it will always be my favorite TV show.
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I think Better With You is quite funny, much funnier than S#%t my dad says, which just doesn\'t have the writing to last, shame with 3 out 4 regulars being potentially awesome in any role. Hawaii, yawn. The Event has potential, it\'ll be interesting to see where it goes. Defenders is good and will run the course. Running Wilde is great! I cannot fathom why people would rather see something as unoriginal as **** my dad says instead. :S
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Where is BLUE BLOODS?
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Is it too early to say "the cape" I mean it hasn't aired yet, but it is on fox...
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I think $#*! is pretty good and the only other on the list here that I like is Hawaii 5-0. I like No Ordinary Family pretty good at least its different. The rest on this list can go as far as Im concerned. Supernatural, Smallville, Fringe, Sons of Anarchy are the only ones I really care about. Bluebloods is pretty good but that is probably because Im such a fan of Tom Selleck. All others can go for my part. Im very excited about the February return of Justified just one more of my favorite returning.
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I think Detroit 1-8-7 is amazing, but unfortunately I don't see the younger crowd appreciating the cast and most people I know 30 and above just don't watch much TV anymore. I had to give up on Nikita after the 1st episode. rating are low (High for CW) but the looks of the star can only get a show with no plot so far. Hell, CW should pick up outlaw and ride that trick pony into the ratings hall of fame.
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Time to add CSI: Miami, CSI: NY as well as CSI to the category "As good as gone". They have all been a success story, but successes also need to end one day. And that day is spring 2011! We also see in the US Viewers list that CSI is dropping.
Time for newer and the new series to "grow up" and become new success stories. Hopefully Hawaii Five-0 will belong to these as well as Nikita. One series is really underestimated - Burn Notice! A real nice show!
And of course some more seasons of NCIS, NCIS:Los Angeles, Criminal Minds, Bones.
Scores on the episodes guides.....I really don't believe they are serious...NCIS: LA the viewers shows that it cannot be so bad as the scores.....
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2 people--Maggie Q/Grace Park! Hottest on TV!
S--- my dad sucks! He doesn't say anything worth S---!
Running Wilde really is funny in many different ways!
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Latest ratings for "Nikita" :1.71 million viewers, #16; adults 18-49: 0.6, #16

That's about a 45% drop. Not amongst the healthiest. I think there was a lot of initial interest but that's obviously disappearing.
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bleep my dad says is pretty darn good...i would hate to see it cancelled...
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I really like Chase. It doesn't hurt that she is so easy on the eyes but the characters and the acting is great. Now I am no cream puff but the utter mass murder and killing on that show is a bit much. Can they just make an episode where one or two people get killed and not 8 or 10. I think there was one episode where home invaders killed kids. The writing is there. The suspense is there. But I have teenage kids and I just don't feel comfortable letting them watch with me. It always kind of wierds me out when you watch a show where a bunch of innocent bodies pile up and we're supposed to forget it as they high-five each other after catching the perp'.
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The data: Premiere episode - 10.69 million viewers, 2.3/7 (special Wednesday air time). Second episode - 4.99 million viewers, 1.1/4 (regular Friday time slot).

What do the numbers 2.3/7, and 1.1/4 mean?

I'm from Holland so not really familiar with this.. thx in advance!
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