Just figured I'd make a few points I've thought about.
Lets go through them:
Basically a list of VERY convenient occurrences.
1. Galactica, the only ship able to fight the Cylons is on the outer edges of the system, un-armed and under the command of a very good commander with a very good crew. Including one of the fleets best top guns, (Starbuck). That means it has a very good crew and ship for fighting the Cylons, but it's location and lack of ammo ensure it doesn't get caught up in the complete destruction of the rest of the fleet. It's able to escape.
2. Just before the attack a whole bunch of display flying pilots, (which means they're amongst the best in the fleet), and another top gun show up with a bunch of MkII Vipers, the only type able to tackle the Cylons without modification.
3. One of the few low ranking politicians who also happens to have all the qualities of a great leader is assigned to the decommissioning ceremony. That person also is the only possible person who could appear to fulfil the Pythia Prophecies. They then get routed back along a route and at a time that all but ensures they'll fall right into the middle of a huge group of survivors when all hell breaks loose.
4. 3 out of the 4 final five we know about are positioned perfectly to survive the attack, and another is subsequently discovered and rescued by Starbuck.
5. The discovery and rescue was only possible because starbuck had to go back to Caprica, and because Athena changed sides and helped them go back and rescue their people. If the arrow and Anders had been on different planets he'd never have been found. If Athena had never switched sides, he's never have been rescued.
6. A number of the clues they've found on the way to earth could only have been found by a rag-tag fleet, or the events surrounding and/or following there discovery could only have happened the way they did if the Colonials did not have military parity or superiority.
Just general WTF doesn't make sense questions.
1. What in 5 hells is going on with Starbuck, she's more proethetic than Pythia and a the Hybrids put together, is at the centre of almost every major event, without her they'd be fraked 50 times over, and somehow she just happens to be aboard Galactica when the Cylons hit.
2. Why the hell would a race that is deliberately trying to escape and destroy it's former human masters then decide to try and imitate them.
3. WTH is going on with the final 5. They're all different ages and all from earth supposedly. Some have been in the colonies since at least the middle of the 1st Cylon war, others didn't turn up till afterwards.
4. How do the 7 know about the 5 if the 5 have been with the colonials, the 5 have to have had some significant contact with the 7, especially if they've made their presence known to the 7, then sealed off and/or destroyed all records of their existence, and also somehow programmed the 7 to not try to seek out knowledge of the 5.
5. What happened when Starbuck "died" and how has she got back.
6. What's going on with the head people, 1 at least, (six), has shown knowledge of things that the person they appear to could not know, (the Cylon god and their fascination with reproduction).
That's the big ones for now that I can remember.
Now I know weirdness is a hallmark of BSG, and coincidences like that lot often happen in TV shows. But some of those questions are quite important, and the sheer list of coincidences is a bit long IMHO. BSG hasn't gone in for such levels of coincidence without accompanying mystery since the mini-series.
The more I look at things the more convinced I'm becoming that at least someone or something outside the Cylons was responsible for the creation of hybrids and human form Cylons. At least one of the 5 was probably involved IMHO, that would explain how the 7 know about the 5, but why they are forbidden to try to discover anything about them and why where they created. Also why did the 4 we know wipe their memories of their part in said creation, (if they indeed played any part, given Saul's involvement ion the war he probably didn't have anything to do with it IMHO).
Likewise the positioning of people and assets, as well as the clues and the things required to unlock them is just too convenient. Even if it was partly down to Pythia and the prophecies meaning most of the clues where put in place 1000's of years ago. It still needed the colonials to be down to a rag-tag fleet before they went looking or it to all work. Not to mention all the craziness with Starbuck's "death" and the head people. Someone somewhere along the line has been arranging for a lot of things to happen in a very specific way the whole time. Including at the very least allowing the attack on the colonies to happen, and possibly right down to arranging it to happen, maybe even detailed planning to help "protect" the Galactica.
Hell we don't even know what this persons objectives or aims are, or when they started working on them. For all we know they could be responsible for the original Cylon Rebellion.
What am I saying overall?
Nothing really, I don't have enough info. Personally I don't think our mystery manipulator is the 5th. I suspect all the 5 played some peripheral part in this mystery things plans, but I don't think they where ever deeply involved. But the 5th is most defiantly going to prove unusual and the key to understanding a lot of parts of the puzzle IMHO.
The real issue though from my PoV is that IMHO we can't see what's really happening, where so close to things that we can't see many of the manipulations for what they are. We can't see the wood for the trees as it where. I don't even think where asking the right questions. We keep asking; Who is the 5th, What does the Mystery Man want.
They're as irrelevant as the old B5 questions; What are the Vorlons, What do the Shadows want. Both proved ultimately pointless to the overall stories resolution.
And I think that's what is going to happen here. We'll get answers to both questions, but they won't actually help us figure out what is going on overall or how it's going to turn out. In the end the real questions in B5 revolved around the key characters we already know and their actions, and I think BSG is going to turn out the same way.