I think the first three books are a complete chapter in itself, if it doesn't get a 4th season we still have closure anyway.
Season 3 will not encompass the third novel in its entirety, so ending the show after that season would leave the story hanging.
I don't see how that would leave the story hanging, all they need to do is to continue with the characters we already know and avoid the introduction of any game changer (there are many on book 3). If they show is renewed, then all they need is to continue the third novel with the bits they left out on season 3.
The thing about book 3 (which I have just finished) is that it's kind of broken into two halves. There is a gamechanger or a climax for almost every character in the middle of book 3, making it so that season 3 and 4 will feel very different from each other despite being a part of the same book. A gigantic game changer with the initials of RW (seriously don't look this up or you will be very spoiled) takes place at the midpoint. Book readers know what RW is. It's a HUGE game changer. And it's where Season 3 will probably end. All the other characters reach a climax in the mid-point too, specifically a certain few characters in the Riverlands and on the wall.
Season 4 will cover less material, but in terms of important events and pacinglot more happens in the second half than the first. So it's going to be a pretty packedtwo seasons. I think it will work out perfectly.
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