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Survivor: Blood vs. Water - Outlast, Outwit, & Outpredict Game

  • Avatar of Dfan46

    Dfan46

    [1]Aug 22, 2013
    • member since: 01/28/06
    • level: 15
    • rank: Ginsu Knife
    • posts: 476

    Hi everybody,


    Welcome to another edition of Survivor: Outlast, Outwit, & Outpredict! I really enjoyed running this last season so despite my hectic school schedule this semester I'm gonna do my best to keep this fun little diversion alive lol. For those of you returning, thank you for getting involved once again - I can't tell you how grateful I am that I didn't have to do this game alone last time. For anyone who is new to the game, here's how it works:


    -Using 5 categories, predict where each of the 20 castaways will place in the game (First Boots, Pre-Merge, Jury Members, Finalists, and the Winner). The goal of the game is to correctly predict where every contestant will place in the competition.


    -Based on how well you predict where each player lands, you will earn points for each of your correct guesses. Even if you correctly predict who wins the season, you may not necessarily win the game - the goal is to make the most correct predictions for where each player ranks. The point breakdown is as follows:


    1 Winner: 95 points (5% chance of guessing correctly)


    2 Finalists: 90 points each (10% chance)


    4 First Boots: 80 points each (20% chance)


    5 Pre-Mergers: 75 points each (25% chance)


    8 Jury Members: 60 points each (40% chance)


    *Due to the unknown number of Jury Members this season point totals may be adjusted if there are more or less than 8 members.


    Note: You do not have to correctly predict the exact booting order to earn points; you just have place contestants in the right category they fall under (Example: If the player you predict to be voted out first sticks around, you can still receive points if that player is one of the next 3 to go).


    However, if you manage to correctly guess the players of an entire category you will receive an extra 50 points. If you correctly predict the boot order of a category, you will earn an extra 70 points (These bonuses apply to every category but the Finalists and Winner).


    In addition to these pre-premiere predictions, we will be making weekly guesses for which player's quote is the episode title as well as certain challenge outcomes and other miscellaneous events that are revealed to us (last season we incorporated guesses for the Medical Evacuations into our game). Check back a couple days before the premiere to make these predictions.


    I know this is a ton of information to process, so if anyone has questions regarding the game feel free to post it on the board or message me!


    Below are the names of the contestants as well as a template for the prediction list that you are welcome to copy and paste into your post. Good luck everyone and may the best predictor win!


    Returning Players:


    1. Tina


    2. Aras


    3. Gervase


    4. Rupert


    5. Candice


    6. Monica


    7. Colton


    8. Kat


    9. Tyson


    10. Laura


    Loved Ones:


    1. Katie (Tina's daughter)


    2. Vytas (Aras' brother)


    3. Marissa (Gervase's niece)


    4. Laura (Rupert's wife)


    5. John (Candice's husband)


    6. Brad (Monica's husband)


    7. Caleb (Colton's fiance)


    8. Hayden (Kat's boyfriend)


    9. Rachel (Tyson's girlfriend)


    10. Cierra (Laura's daughter)


    Category Breakdown


    Winner:


    1.


    Finalists:


    2.


    3.


    Jury Members:


    4.


    5.


    6.


    7.


    8.


    9.


    10.


    11.


    Pre-Mergers:


    12.


    13.


    14.


    15.


    16.


    First Boots:


    17.


    18.


    19.


    20.


    I may wait a day or two to post my prediction list - I'll probably overanalyze the cast interviews on CBS's website and then make my decisions.

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  • Avatar of mcepin3

    mcepin3

    [2]Aug 22, 2013
    • member since: 08/22/05
    • level: 16
    • rank: Church Lady
    • posts: 659

    Missed it last time,aint' gonna miss it this time


    I do feel bad,because this prediction is pretty much based on first impresions,looks,if someone is shifty or not,etc.



    Winner:


    1. Tyson Tired of vets winning,even though I like them..well most of them...but the way it usually goes,think vet is gonna win again


    Finalists:


    2. Caleb He might be underdog and not viewed as threat,so he might just slide by...depends on his other half


    3. Vytas I chose him in other pool,might as well hope for the best


    Jury Members:


    4. Candice She will probably betray,same as she did last 2 times and got into jury,then she will have her speech on her high horse


    5. Rupert Think he will make it to jury,but again will fall short.


    6. Laura (Rupert's wife) She might make it to jury...hoping that she does


    7. Marissa She will probably be viewed as threat,if she really is athletic and all


    8. Kat She should probably be higher on list,because she also might just skate by under radar


    9. Cierra Have to fill 9th place


    10. John Probably victim of being threat


    11. Brad Same as John


    Pre-Mergers:


    12. Monica Don't know,who she is...sad...will have to check it out


    13. Laura Don't know her,but first time she got to jury...is she the one,where her tribe screwed her over Russell?


    14. Colton He might actually get into jury,if he doesn't get sick. In One World everyone just bowed down to him and followed him. Remember Phillip??? Guy we all wanted out and managed to get how far!?!?!?...just saying...


    15. Gervase Hoping he gets to jury


    16. Katie Don't know,if she has that cut throat skill


    First Boots:


    17. Hayden Because he is already a winner,even if it's on BB


    18. Aras Same,because he is already a winner


    19. Tina Same with her,because she already won


    20. Rachel Don't know,if she has what it takes to play Survivor...did you see her description?





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  • Avatar of Dfan46

    Dfan46

    [3]Aug 22, 2013
    • member since: 01/28/06
    • level: 15
    • rank: Ginsu Knife
    • posts: 476

    Yeah, we're essentially taking 20 shots in the dark here lol. Since there will likely be more information revealed about the contestants via Probst's Cast Assessment and other articles/videos, you're more than welcome to edit and rearrange your standings before the premiere if you so choose. I'll probably end up posting a link to the Cast Assessment on here once it pops up on YouTube.

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  • Avatar of mcepin3

    mcepin3

    [4]Aug 23, 2013
    • member since: 08/22/05
    • level: 16
    • rank: Church Lady
    • posts: 659

    I'll leave it alone...probably won't watch Probst's Cast Assessment...never did,can people outside US even watch it? What I know about loved ones,is from that article Meet the Cast of Blood vs. Water here on tv.com in that viewer. So I went based on that as reference for making my list.

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  • Avatar of skbrettbug

    skbrettbug

    [5]Aug 23, 2013
    • member since: 05/17/08
    • level: 18
    • rank: Land Shark
    • posts: 3,142

    mcepin3 wrote:


    I'll leave it alone...probably won't watch Probst's Cast Assessment...never did,can people outside US even watch it? What I know about loved ones,is from that article Meet the Cast of Blood vs. Water here on tv.com in that viewer. So I went based on that as reference for making my list.



    I believe you can if you can access CBS.com (probably not) or somebody will end up uploading it to youtube in less than 24 hours


    By the way what country are you from mcepin?

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  • Avatar of mcepin3

    mcepin3

    [6]Aug 23, 2013
    • member since: 08/22/05
    • level: 16
    • rank: Church Lady
    • posts: 659

    Slovenia.


    Well I can go to cbs.com...that part ain't hard...it's the videos part...and guess what...I was able to watch a video!!! I watched Meet The Castaways,it's long under 4min. Guess they changed rules of viewing.

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  • Avatar of skbrettbug

    skbrettbug

    [7]Aug 23, 2013
    • member since: 05/17/08
    • level: 18
    • rank: Land Shark
    • posts: 3,142

    Slovenia...how cool! And I am glad that you can see a video on te web

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  • Avatar of amazing_race

    amazing_race

    [8]Aug 23, 2013
    • member since: 04/01/07
    • level: 53
    • rank: Commander in Chief
    • posts: 6,152

    Winner:



    1. Monica



    Finalists:



    2. Hayden



    3. Tyson



    Jury Members:



    4. Marissa



    5. Brad



    6. Gervase



    7. Rachel



    8. Vytas



    9. Katie



    10. Tina



    11. Laura (Rupert's Wife)



    Pre-Mergers:



    12. Laura (Returning Castaway)



    13. Candice



    14. Kat



    15. John



    16. Cierra



    First Boots:



    17. Aras



    18. Caleb



    19. Colton



    20. Rupert

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  • Avatar of amazing_race

    amazing_race

    [9]Aug 23, 2013
    • member since: 04/01/07
    • level: 53
    • rank: Commander in Chief
    • posts: 6,152

    Random guessing for me lol. A bit of wishful thinking but I hope Monica the queen can go all the way! I hope Kat and Candice make it further than I anticipate though!

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  • Avatar of mcepin3

    mcepin3

    [10]Aug 23, 2013
    • member since: 08/22/05
    • level: 16
    • rank: Church Lady
    • posts: 659

    skbrettbug wrote:


    Slovenia...how cool! And I am glad that you can see a video on te web




    Yeah,was cool to see video. Also cool video. When there's scene of Rupert and Laura,Rupert says they will win,because they are the best campers...sad to say,I think there's a dead giveaway Rupert ain't gonna win

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  • Avatar of Colin_Rob_Rock

    Colin_Rob_Rock

    [12]Aug 23, 2013
    • member since: 01/27/13
    • level: 10
    • rank: Holy Level 10!
    • posts: 714

    I couldn't get this in the previous message so I'll write it here. I am assuming the merge comes at 12 and the first out after doesn't make the jury.

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  • Avatar of mcepin3

    mcepin3

    [13]Aug 23, 2013
    • member since: 08/22/05
    • level: 16
    • rank: Church Lady
    • posts: 659

    Wait are those spoilers!?!?!?!? Read only few and the way you write,seems like you know,who goes when and how.

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  • Avatar of Colin_Rob_Rock

    Colin_Rob_Rock

    [14]Aug 23, 2013
    • member since: 01/27/13
    • level: 10
    • rank: Holy Level 10!
    • posts: 714

    mcepin3 wrote:


    Wait are those spoilers!?!?!?!? Read only few and the way you write,seems like you know,who goes when and how.



    No those are all guess. When I make a prediction I go all out!

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  • Avatar of skbrettbug

    skbrettbug

    [15]Aug 23, 2013
    • member since: 05/17/08
    • level: 18
    • rank: Land Shark
    • posts: 3,142

    Soon I'll do my predictions. Gotta wait til the first weekend of school-tough week

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  • Avatar of skbrettbug

    skbrettbug

    [16]Aug 24, 2013
    • member since: 05/17/08
    • level: 18
    • rank: Land Shark
    • posts: 3,142

    It's the weekend...it's time for my predictions.


    Winner:



    1. Rupert - I do think he has the potential to win! One out of four isn't bad



    Finalists:



    2. Vytas - Strong competitor, seems to be a people person.



    3. Kat - Going out on a limb here...



    Jury Members:



    4. Gervase - Good guy to keep around til the end.



    5. Brad - I think he's gonna sneak his way up to the top.



    6. Aras - Threat, previous winner.



    7. Monica - Again, no reasoning for putting her here



    8. Marissa - Another "blindside". And I needed to put her somewhere.



    9. Laura B. - No reasoning, just a early merge stage blindside.



    10. John - Threat.



    11. Tyson - Get him out while you still can guys!



    Pre-Mergers:



    12. Katie - No reason to keep her for the merge, she could pull a Natalie.



    13. Laura M. - She is a devil, say she gets on everybody's nerves...and then this happens.



    14. Caleb - Annoying like Colton.



    15. Candice - See Cierra.



    16. Tina - Weak. Already won.



    First Boots:



    17. Colton - Annoying. Don't they all know his "past"?



    18. Cierra - Really useless, I see no point in keeping her.



    19. Hayden - You can't win 'em all, bud.



    20. Rachel - I don't think she's going to make it here on Survivor at all.



    If I forgot/repeated anybody please let me know! Good luck guys!

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  • Avatar of AdaHui

    AdaHui

    [17]Aug 26, 2013
    • member since: 07/05/09
    • level: 6
    • rank: Small Wonder
    • posts: 53
    Ok, so as y'all learned last season, I suck the bomb on this so why not try the exact same method lol It's better all around if I don't actively try to over-analyze....

    Category Breakdown

    Winner:

    1. Rupert

    Finalists:

    2. Tina

    3. Tyson

    Jury Members:

    4. Laura (Rupert's wife)

    5. Monica

    6. Katie

    7. Candice

    8. Aras

    9. John

    10. Vytas

    11. Rachel

    Pre-Mergers:

    12. Gervase

    13. Kat

    14. Marissa

    15. Hayden

    16. Brad

    First Boots:

    17. Caleb

    18. Cierra

    19. Laura

    20. Colton --> just because I can't stand him at all

    Again, no method to my madness but let's see how this plays out haha Thanks for running this again!
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  • Avatar of Dfan46

    Dfan46

    [18]Aug 26, 2013
    • member since: 01/28/06
    • level: 15
    • rank: Ginsu Knife
    • posts: 476

    Ok, after much speculation and overanalyzing, here's my list:


    Winner:


    1. Vytas - Looks like a strong competitor, and if he can emulate a similar social game to his brother I have to believe he's a threat to win it all.


    Finalists:


    2. Tyson - It'd be great to see Tyson redeem himself after his poor showing in Heroes vs. Villains, but a small part of me thinks he just doesn't have it in him to convince a jury to vote for him.


    3. Katie - Something about Katie clicks for me. She may not claim to be as competitive as her mother, but I believe if she has the social game in her she'll outlast the other women.


    Jury Members:


    4. Aras - I think Aras a strong enough social game to shake off the stigma of being a previous winner, but if he gets this close to the finals his competitors will do all that they can to oust him.


    5. Gervase - He'll definitely have to land in a good alliance in order to stick around this long, but I think Gervase will be much more aware and proactive this time around.


    6. Tina - As much as I like Tina, I just don't think the other contestants will let her get any further than the jury. Here's hoping she and Aras can work together to overcome the early targets on their back.


    7. Kat - Wiser players will use her as a vote and then do away when final alliances are formed.


    8. John - See Hayden


    9. Hayden - Charismatic enough to get enough people behind him, but once individual immunity arrives the target on his back will grow considerably.


    10. Monica - As much as I like Monica, I don't know if she possesses a strong enough social game to get much further than she did in her last go around. Fingers crossed she makes jury, though!


    11. Colton - It pains me to think he'll be around this long but I bet he'll manage to squeak by into the jury phase of the game so he can terrorize Ponderosa.


    Pre-Mergers:


    12. Caleb - He comes off much less abrasive than his partner, but I have a feeling being associated with Colton will result in his tribemates voting him out before the merge.


    13. Brad - Man, this guy doesn't stop talking! Something tells me his motor-mouth (and dominating presence) will get him into trouble near the halfway mark.


    14. Laura (Rupert's Wife) - Unless she really pulls her weight in the challenges, I think her tribe will discard her before the merge.


    15. Cierra - She might have a little more fight in her than I initially gave her credit for. She comes off mature for her age and likeable enough to avoid getting booted atthe first couple tribals.


    16. Rachel - Doesn't strike me as a powerhouse competitor, and if she's Tyson's girlfriend I'm betting she isn't afraid of causing friction within her tribe.


    First Boots:


    17. Marissa - As a younger contestant, I think she'll have trouble adapting to the harsh conditions, not to mention her age may make her cannon fodder for an early vote.


    18. Rupert - Jeff seems to think he has a slim shot at winning and the fact that he's the only four-timer on this season makes me believe he'll be one of the first targets.


    19. Candice - Given her inconsistent track record, I wouldn't be surprised if her tribe sacrificed her for the first vote off.


    20. Laura - Still seems like an outsider to me...I think she'll be able to befriend the older women on her team but the rest will find her too vocal and opinionated to keep around.

    Edited on 09/09/2013 9:57am
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  • Avatar of skbrettbug

    skbrettbug

    [19]Aug 26, 2013
    • member since: 05/17/08
    • level: 18
    • rank: Land Shark
    • posts: 3,142

    I love these predictions everybody is making?


    And by the way Dfan are you in HS or college? And if college, where do you attend?

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  • Avatar of Colin_Rob_Rock

    Colin_Rob_Rock

    [20]Aug 27, 2013
    • member since: 01/27/13
    • level: 10
    • rank: Holy Level 10!
    • posts: 714

    Dfan46 wrote:


    18. Laura - She looks like she may be an outlier, and if her daughter does happen to get sent to Redemption Island first her tribe may want to pit the two against one another.



    Will there be redemption island this season?

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