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Survivor: Cagayan - Outlast, Outwit, & Outpredict Game

  • Avatar of Dfan46

    Dfan46

    [1]Jan 25, 2014
    • member since: 01/28/06
    • level: 15
    • rank: Ginsu Knife
    • posts: 489

    Hello everyone and welcome to...


     photo Cagayan.png



    That's right, your favorite triple letter word game pertaining to Survivor is back! For those of you returning from last season, thanks for getting involved again - last season was a lot of fun and I hope this season is just as interactive here on the boards. As for those of you who are new to the game, here's how it works:


    Using 5 categories, predict where each of the 18 castaways will place in the game (First Boots, Pre-Merge, Jury Members, Finalists, and the Winner). The goal of the game is to correctly predict where every contestant will place in the competition.


    Based on how well you predict where each player lands, you will earn points for each of your correct guesses. Even if you correctly predict who wins the season, you may not necessarily win the game - the goal is to make the most correct predictions for where each player ranks. The point breakdown is as follows:


    (NOTE FOR RETURNING PARTICIPANTS: Since there are 18 players this season I altered the point values to reflect the slightly smaller cast)


    1 Winner: 95 points (about 5% chance of guessing correctly)


    2 Finalists: 90 points each (about 10% chance)


    3 First Boots: 85 points each (about 15% chance)


    4 Pre-Mergers: 80 points each (20% chance)


    8 Jury Members: 55 points each (45% chance)


    *Due to the unknown number of Jury Members this season point totals may be adjusted if there are more or less than 8 members.


    Note: You do not have to correctly predict the exact booting order to earn points; you just have place contestants in the right category they fall under (Example: If the player you predict to be voted out first sticks around, you can still receive points if that player is one of the next 2 to go).


    However, if you manage to correctly guess the players of an entire category you will receive an extra 50 points. If you correctly predict the boot order of a category, you will earn an extra 70 points (These bonuses apply to every category but the Finalists and Winner).


    In addition to these pre-premiere predictions, we will be making weekly guesses for which player's quote is the episode title as well as certain challenge outcomes and other miscellaneous events that are revealed to us (Med. Evacs, Challenge Sit-Outs, etc.). Check back a couple days before the premiere to make these predictions.


    If anyone has questions regarding the game feel free to post it on the board or message me!


    Below are the names of the contestants as well as a template for the prediction list that you are welcome to copy and paste into your post. Good luck everyone and may the best predictor win!


    Aparri (Brawn)


    1. Cliff


    2. Lindsey


    3. Sarah


    4. Tony


    5. Trish


    6. Woo


    Luzon (Brains)


    1. David


    2. Garrett


    3. J'Tia


    4. Kass


    5. Tasha


    6. Spencer


    Solana (Beauty)


    1. Alexis


    2. Brice


    3. Jefra


    4. Jeremiah


    5. Morgan


    6. LJ


    Category Breakdown



    Winner:



    1.



    Finalists:



    2.



    3.



    Jury Members:



    4.



    5.



    6.



    7.



    8.



    9.



    10.



    11.



    Pre-Mergers:



    12.



    13.



    14.



    15.



    First Boots:



    16.



    17.



    18.



    As per usual, I'm still sorting out my list but I plan on posting it within the week. Lord knows I love to overanalyze those cast videos lol

    Edited on 01/25/2014 11:08pm
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  • Avatar of amazing_race

    amazing_race

    [2]Jan 26, 2014
    • member since: 04/01/07
    • level: 54
    • rank: Prison Warden
    • posts: 6,163

    I honestly have no real clue what to do - I'm tempted to just fill the last based on my early favourites and see how this goes.


    I think I might wait a little and do it a bit later, but I can't wait to begin!

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  • Avatar of skbrettbug

    skbrettbug

    [3]Jan 26, 2014
    • member since: 05/17/08
    • level: 19
    • rank: Fall Guy
    • posts: 3,211
    YES! YES! YES!
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  • Avatar of Taylorg8

    Taylorg8

    [4]Jan 26, 2014
    • member since: 08/24/10
    • level: 13
    • rank: Regal Beagle
    • posts: 848
    It will take me some time to fill this out. I might even wait for the TVGuide special or at least edit it after that.
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  • Avatar of Colin_Rob_Rock

    Colin_Rob_Rock

    [5]Jan 26, 2014
    • member since: 01/27/13
    • level: 10
    • rank: Holy Level 10!
    • posts: 831

    Since I started the tradition last season i'll do it here. I predict John Cody for all episode quotes all immunity wins and winning the game since it worked out so well for me last time. And Sam don't worry I will try to be "Higher" this season. Just to try and keep things fun

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  • Avatar of skbrettbug

    skbrettbug

    [6]Jan 26, 2014
    • member since: 05/17/08
    • level: 19
    • rank: Fall Guy
    • posts: 3,211
    I think I'm gonna toss all the names into random.org
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  • Avatar of Dfan46

    Dfan46

    [7]Jan 26, 2014
    • member since: 01/28/06
    • level: 15
    • rank: Ginsu Knife
    • posts: 489

    Yeah, I think this is first time we've had to make initial predictions on an entirely new cast so it definitely makes it harder to place the contestants. All I can basically deduce is Brice won't make it to the end. For me, it's between a brain and a brawn taking the season. If I have time tomorrow I may just post some gut instinct predictions and change it when the rest of the previews pop up.

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  • Avatar of joepetrizzo7

    joepetrizzo7

    [8]Jan 26, 2014
    • member since: 01/07/13
    • level: 9
    • rank: Door Number 2
    • posts: 670
    Since I only predicted two correctly last season, I am only going to pick the winner and the finalists. Everyone else is going into a randomizer.
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  • Avatar of skbrettbug

    skbrettbug

    [9]Jan 26, 2014
    • member since: 05/17/08
    • level: 19
    • rank: Fall Guy
    • posts: 3,211
    joepetrizzo7 wrote:
    Since I only predicted two correctly last season, I am only going to pick the winner and the finalists. Everyone else is going into a randomizer.

    Copier! that would be a good idea that I probably won't end up doing
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  • Avatar of mcepin3

    mcepin3

    [10]Jan 27, 2014
    • member since: 08/22/05
    • level: 17
    • rank: The Crazy Neighbor
    • posts: 675

    Seems there's no brave soul,who would go first,so I'll break the ice


    Based on that video Meet the Castaways,that Anthem47 posted(ty),here are my thoughts:


    Winner:


    1. Sarah (brawn) - ok,new cast,complete shot in the dark. I went with brawn,because I said I think brawn wins the season.


    Finalists:


    2. Jeremiah (beauty) - Probst talked something about heroic moments,etc. and then it showed him. I think he'll get far


    3. Woo (brawn) - same as I did with Vytas,I'll place him high and hope for the best. But Woo seems he will be big target from get-go


    Jury Members:


    4. Latasha (brains) - might not be viewed as threat and skate by? Or could be great player,who knows...


    5. Spencer (brains) - they clearly aren't hiding the fact he will be villain,so I am thinking he will get far,if not top 3


    6. LJ (beauty) - if he is great with puzzles and has some brain, I could see him get far


    7. Garrett (brains) - ughh,I already hate this guy That fake smile,plastic surgery no doubt


    8. Brice (beauty) - no idea,if he is fool or just playing a fool...


    9. Trish (brawn) - might be threat,if she is good in challenges?


    10. Kassandra (brains) - she probably should be higher on list. Might fly under the radar


    11. J'Tia (brains) - she might get on people's nerves


    Pre-Mergers


    12. Tony (brawn) - big guys,big threat,easy vote


    13. Cliff (brawn) - same as Tony


    14. David (brains) - seems people talk bad about him,not likeable guy...don't know him,since I am not from USA


    15. Lindsey (brawn) - I think she will be the first to go on brawn tribe.


    First boots


    16. Morgan (beauty) - she's got the...u know what*jaw drop*....but I don't think she'll last


    17. Alexis (beauty) - I hope she is higher


    18. Jefra (beauty) - based on that video Meet the Castaways,I think brawn wins first challenge and either Brains or Beauty lose. I think Beauty might lose and she's just the victim of first vote.

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  • Avatar of skbrettbug

    skbrettbug

    [11]Jan 27, 2014
    • member since: 05/17/08
    • level: 19
    • rank: Fall Guy
    • posts: 3,211

    School is off due to snow, what the heck. Let's go


    Winner:


    1. Spencer


    Finalists:


    2. Garrett


    3. Sarah


    Jury Members:


    4. Trish


    5. Brice (mega dark horse)


    6. Morgan (please)


    7. Woo


    8. LaTasha


    9. Lindsey


    10. Cliff


    11. LJ


    Pre-mergers:


    12. Tony


    13. Alexis


    14. Jeremiah


    15. J'Tia


    First boots:


    16. David


    17. Jefra


    18. Kass

    Edited on 02/17/2014 6:01am
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  • Avatar of Dfan46

    Dfan46

    [12]Jan 27, 2014
    • member since: 01/28/06
    • level: 15
    • rank: Ginsu Knife
    • posts: 489

    Yay! Thanks for taking the plunge Matjaz and Brett. I told myself I'd post mine today but I had to write a paper first. Here's my boot order list (subject to change, of course).


    Winner:


    1. Trish - last season I hedged my bets and lost this game so I'm going all in with my pick for the pool.


    Finalists:


    2. Sarah - seems like she'll be able to play an under the radar game but I get the feeling she'll be as vanilla as Julia


    3. Garrett - this guy looks cocky, and I don't think he'll be able to win a jury over


    Jury Members:


    4. Spencer - too arrogant IMO, which is why I hope he gets blindsided before FTC


    5. Tony - I have a feeling he's gonna annoy the hell outta me but for some reason I think he's gonna last longer than he should


    6. LJ - claims he's good at puzzles but I totally see a Carter edit for this guy


    7. Tasha - I like her personality and I think she has the potential to outlast most of the other women this season


    8. Woo - one of the bigger physical threats and if he's likeable too nobody will want to sit next to him in the end


    9. Jefra - says she's a finalist finisher a la Chelsea Meissner, but I'm getting more of a Whitney Duncan "out early in the jury" vibe from her


    10. David - I gave him the Jeff Kent placement since he's a pseudo-celebrity and production will probably try their damnedest to keep him on the island until the jury phase of the game


    11. Jeremiah - country bumpkins can usually charm their way to the jury. I see him more as J.T. from HvV than Tocantins though


    Pre-Mergers:


    12. J'Tia - I don't think her strategy of complaining will endear her to her tribemates


    13. Cliff - considering this guy basically towers over every person in the cast photo I'd be surprised if he isn't given the boot before individual immunity rolls around


    14. Brice - I just don't see him gelling well with the rest of his tribe


    15. Morgan - this one looks dead behind the eyes; really, the only potential she can live up to is sticking around long enough for a Slip N Slide challenge


    First Boots:


    16. Lindsey - I think her physical appearance will alienate her from the rest of the brawns and her admission of having no middle ground probably won't help her either


    17. Alexis - I think she'll be singled out for being the weakest on her tribe and thus giving the other players a reason to boot her


    18. Kass -I like Kass and I think her strategy of laying low would work well on a tribe of 10, but something tells me that age bias, combined with the smaller tribes this season, will cause her tribe mates to boot her first

    Edited on 02/13/2014 5:09pm
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  • Avatar of Dfan46

    Dfan46

    [13]Jan 27, 2014
    • member since: 01/28/06
    • level: 15
    • rank: Ginsu Knife
    • posts: 489

    Btw Brett, did you end up going the randomizer route?

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  • Avatar of skbrettbug

    skbrettbug

    [14]Jan 27, 2014
    • member since: 05/17/08
    • level: 19
    • rank: Fall Guy
    • posts: 3,211
    Nope. I realized it would be more fun to see how my brainwork goes. Besides I had nothing better to do, school was cancelled. But you wouldn't know that because everything is bigger in Texas including the temperature

    How long have you like, lived in, like Texas? (like)
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  • Avatar of Dfan46

    Dfan46

    [15]Jan 27, 2014
    • member since: 01/28/06
    • level: 15
    • rank: Ginsu Knife
    • posts: 489

    skbrettbug wrote:
    Nope. I realized it would be more fun to see how my brainwork goes. Besides I had nothing better to do, school was cancelled. But you wouldn't know that because everything is bigger in Texas including the temperature How long have you like, lived in, like Texas? (like)


    You're making me regret my Pet Peeves answer in the AR ORG, lol. I've lived here for practically my whole life - had a brief 6 month stint in Florida but that's all I could handle...it was ghetto.


    I'm glad you put your brain to use for your predictions - I'll admit I punched some names into a randomizer last night but it just wasn't as fun as prematurely judging the contestants.

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  • Avatar of skbrettbug

    skbrettbug

    [16]Jan 27, 2014
    • member since: 05/17/08
    • level: 19
    • rank: Fall Guy
    • posts: 3,211
    Dfan46 wrote:

    skbrettbug wrote:
    Nope. I realized it would be more fun to see how my brainwork goes. Besides I had nothing better to do, school was cancelled. But you wouldn't know that because everything is bigger in Texas including the temperature How long have you like, lived in, like Texas? (like)


    You're making me regret my Pet Peeves answer in the AR ORG, lol. I've lived here for practically my whole life - had a brief 6 month stint in Florida but that's all I could handle...it was ghetto.


    I'm glad you put your brain to use for your predictions - I'll admit I punched some names into a randomizer last night but it just wasn't as fun as prematurely judging the contestants.


    You never lived in a cold climate. Spoiled
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  • Avatar of Colin_Rob_Rock

    Colin_Rob_Rock

    [17]Jan 27, 2014
    • member since: 01/27/13
    • level: 10
    • rank: Holy Level 10!
    • posts: 831

    skbrettbug wrote:
    Dfan46 wrote:


    skbrettbug wrote:
    Nope. I realized it would be more fun to see how my brainwork goes. Besides I had nothing better to do, school was cancelled. But you wouldn't know that because everything is bigger in Texas including the temperature How long have you like, lived in, like Texas? (like)


    You're making me regret my Pet Peeves answer in the AR ORG, lol. I've lived here for practically my whole life - had a brief 6 month stint in Florida but that's all I could handle...it was ghetto.


    I'm glad you put your brain to use for your predictions - I'll admit I punched some names into a randomizer last night but it just wasn't as fun as prematurely judging the contestants.


    You never lived in a cold climate. Spoiled


    I don't think I've ever lived in a warm Climate.


    I will post mine, I but them in my initial instinct now i'm busy overanalyzing it before I post.

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  • Avatar of joepetrizzo7

    joepetrizzo7

    [18]Jan 27, 2014
    • member since: 01/07/13
    • level: 9
    • rank: Door Number 2
    • posts: 670
    skbrettbug wrote:
    Dfan46 wrote:

    skbrettbug wrote:
    Nope. I realized it would be more fun to see how my brainwork goes. Besides I had nothing better to do, school was cancelled. But you wouldn't know that because everything is bigger in Texas including the temperature How long have you like, lived in, like Texas? (like)


    You're making me regret my Pet Peeves answer in the AR ORG, lol. I've lived here for practically my whole life - had a brief 6 month stint in Florida but that's all I could handle...it was ghetto.


    I'm glad you put your brain to use for your predictions - I'll admit I punched some names into a randomizer last night but it just wasn't as fun as prematurely judging the contestants.


    You never lived in a cold climate. Spoiled


    NJ has been having the worst weather I can remember. Hard to imagine going to the beach this summer when it's been so cold this month. Hurricane Sandy was far worse than this polar vortex thingy.
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  • Avatar of skbrettbug

    skbrettbug

    [19]Jan 27, 2014
    • member since: 05/17/08
    • level: 19
    • rank: Fall Guy
    • posts: 3,211
    joepetrizzo7 wrote:
    skbrettbug wrote:
    Dfan46 wrote:

    skbrettbug wrote:
    Nope. I realized it would be more fun to see how my brainwork goes. Besides I had nothing better to do, school was cancelled. But you wouldn't know that because everything is bigger in Texas including the temperature How long have you like, lived in, like Texas? (like)


    You're making me regret my Pet Peeves answer in the AR ORG, lol. I've lived here for practically my whole life - had a brief 6 month stint in Florida but that's all I could handle...it was ghetto.


    I'm glad you put your brain to use for your predictions - I'll admit I punched some names into a randomizer last night but it just wasn't as fun as prematurely judging the contestants.


    You never lived in a cold climate. Spoiled


    NJ has been having the worst weather I can remember. Hard to imagine going to the beach this summer when it's been so cold this month. Hurricane Sandy was far worse than this polar vortex thingy.

    Negative 40 here. And you live by New York so technically you get Billy Joel. All we get is CM Punk
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  • Avatar of skbrettbug

    skbrettbug

    [20]Jan 27, 2014
    • member since: 05/17/08
    • level: 19
    • rank: Fall Guy
    • posts: 3,211
    And this is why we need that Off-Topic Thread.

    Support me in getting the Off-Topic Thread now, the first 5 supporters will get a free prize!
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