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Survivor Caramoan - Outlast, Outwit, & Outpredict Game

  • Avatar of Dfan46

    Dfan46

    [1]Feb 9, 2013
    • member since: 01/28/06
    • level: 15
    • rank: Ginsu Knife
    • posts: 476

    Hello everyone! I thought it would be a fun idea to create a 2nd Survivor game for the show's 26th season. For those of you who are also participating in the pool, this will give you an additional way to stay involved on the board even if your choice to win gets voted out prematurely. Here's how the game works:


    -Using 5 categories, predict where each of the 20 castaways will place in the game (First Boots, Pre-Merge, Jury Members, Finalists, and the Winner). The goal of the game is to correctly predict where every contestant will place in the competition.


    -Based on how well you predict where each player lands, you will earn points for each of your correct guesses. Even if you correctly predict who wins the season, you may not necessarily win the game - the goal is to make the most correct predictions for where each player ranks. The point breakdown is as follows:


    1 Winner: 95 points (5% chance of guessing correctly)


    2 Finalists: 90 points each (10% chance)


    4 First Boots: 80 points each (20% chance)


    5 Pre-Mergers: 75 points each (25% chance)


    8 Jury Members: 60 points each (40% chance)


    *Obviously, the number of Jury Members for this season has not been revealed yet. Once it is, I will make any necessary changes to the categories and calculate everyone's scores accordingly.


    Note: You do not have to correctly predict the exact booting order to earn points; you just have place contestants in the right category they fall under (Example: If the player you predict to be voted out first sticks around, you can still receive points if that player is one of the next 3 to go).


    However, if you manage to correctly guess the players of an entire category you will receive an extra 50 points. If you correctly predict the boot orderof a category, you will earn an extra 70 points (These bonuses apply to every category but the Finalists and Winner).


    If you would like, you can provide brief explanations for each of the castaways' placement on your list- it may make the game more enjoyable once the show airs to see whether or not you're initial perceptions about the contestants were right.


    I will be updating the scores every week and encourage your comments along the way- hopefully we can have some fun with this!


    (Feel free to use the rest of this as a template for your post)


    Here are the castaways:


    Favorites:


    1. Andrea


    2. Phillip


    3. Francesca


    4. Dawn


    5. Cochran


    6. Brandon


    7. Brenda


    8. Erik


    9. Corinne


    10. Malcolm


    Fans:


    1. Allie


    2. Shamar


    3. Sherrie


    4. Hope


    5. Eddie


    6. Laura


    7. Reynold


    8. Julia


    9. Michael


    10. Matt


    Category Breakdown


    Winner:


    1.


    Finalists:


    2.


    3.


    Jury Members:


    4.


    5.


    6.


    7.


    8.


    9.


    10.


    11.


    Pre-Merge:


    12.


    13.


    14.


    15.


    16.


    First Boots:


    17.


    18.


    19.


    20.

    Edited on 02/09/2013 3:09pm
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  • Avatar of Dfan46

    Dfan46

    [2]Feb 9, 2013
    • member since: 01/28/06
    • level: 15
    • rank: Ginsu Knife
    • posts: 476

    I'll start things off with my list of predictions:


    Winner:


    1. Dawn - There's a little bias in this one. Dawn wasn't a standout strategic player in her first season, but dammit she was endearing! I think this woman is inherently likable and if she's given a chance to plead her case to a jury, I have to believe she'll be pretty effective at convincing enough people to vote for her.


    Finalists:


    2. Sherri - Judging from this woman's bio, I think she comes off as pretty well-rounded. She'll definitely have to work harder at the onset to prove herself as she's the oldest woman in her tribe but I believe she has it in her to outlast most of the competition.


    3. Cochran - I'm betting a redemption tale is in store for Mr. I'm-Afraid-of-Colored-Rocks. Probst has always had a soft spot for this guy and the fact that he proclaimed this season is just as good as the last one makes me think one of his favorite players will fare better this time around.


    Jury Members:


    4. Hope - I have a feeling she'll perform better than most of the beauty pageant winners who are cast on this show if she plays an under the radar game.


    5. Malcolm - If he shakes off the stigma of returning to play immediately after last season he should be a threat to win.


    6. Phillip - Like Abi-Maria, I think he'll simply be kept around until no one can tolerate him.


    7. Andrea - I sense she and Malcolm will become the romantic pairing hinted at in this season; if the majority find out about this, she'll face the same fateas her previous boy toy.


    8. Eddie -Based on his physically demanding occupation, I wouldn't be surprised if he won an immunity necklace or two.


    9. Matt - Looks like someone who won't make a lot of waves and thus will be kept around for a longer period of time.


    10. Corinne - By the time the merge comes around, I gurantee this woman will have burned a bridge or two.


    11. Shamar - Good guy to keep around for the merge, but an easy target once individual immunity rolls around.


    Pre-Merge:


    12. Reynold - Reminds me of Pete from last season; something tells me he'll try to make a big move too early on in the game, and it may cost him a higher place in the game.


    13. Julia - Looks like an aggressive competitor, but I question how strong her social game is.


    14. Brandon - Here's hoping the women on his tribe have him excommunicated before he finds another Mikayla.


    15. Michael - The fact that this guy stated "I'm going to be annoying at some point in this game" really makes me think he won't stick around for too long.


    16. Erik - He'll probably be considered a pawn by the rest of his tribe, but his physical strength makes him enough of a threat to have removed before the merge.


    First Boots:


    17. Allie - I'm thinking this girl will come off as too abrasive to the rest of her tribe and will be ushered out early on.


    18. Francesca - Her gameplay strategy is a question mark and I doubt the rest of her tribe will want to give her the opportunity to find out what it is.


    19. Laura - Something tells me she won't be a powerhouse in the challenges and from what I gather from Jeff's Cast Assessment,her demeanormay rub her tribe mates the wrong way.


    20. Brenda - I don't believe the other returning favorites will trust her; they know she played a bold game in her last go around and is a capable strategist. A threat like that is worth neutralizing right off the bat.

    Edited on 02/09/2013 2:15pm
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  • Avatar of amazing_race

    amazing_race

    [3]Feb 11, 2013
    • member since: 04/01/07
    • level: 53
    • rank: Commander in Chief
    • posts: 6,152

    This looks fun! Here's mine (with some justifications):


    Winner:



    1. Sherri - She looks like the more likeable Dawn if that's possible lol.



    Finalists:



    2. Dawn



    3. Cochran



    Jury Members:



    4. Malcolm - Wouldn't this just be oh so cruel?



    5. Andrea - I love Andrea and I hope she can get this far!



    6. Phillip - Would love to see Phillip make the end again, but I have a feeling that these people aren't as tolerant an d goal-oriented as Rob.



    7. Brenda - She is intelligent enough to get this far, but too big of a threat to get any further imo.



    8. Erik - I just hope he doesn't give an Immunity Necklace to someone. -____-



    9. Eddie



    10. Michael



    11. Reynold



    Pre-Merge:



    12. Brandon



    13. Corinne - I want to see her go further, but my gut says she will leave even earlier than this so I'm just being optimistic.



    14. Hope



    15. Allie



    16. Shamar



    First Boots:



    17. Julia



    18. Matt



    19. Laura



    20. Francesca - I hope she stays longer so I can hear Phillip say 'FRAN-CHESSSS-SQUWAAAAAAAA' a few more times.

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  • Avatar of AdaHui

    AdaHui

    [4]Feb 12, 2013
    • member since: 07/05/09
    • level: 6
    • rank: Small Wonder
    • posts: 53

    I almost always suck at these prediction things so gonna fly by the seat of my pants. No justification because it`s basically all random and hope for the best LOL



    Winner:


    1. Malcolm


    Finalists:


    2. Eddie


    3. Dawn


    Jury Members:


    4. Shamar


    5. Brenda


    6. Phillip


    7. Andrea


    8. Brandon


    9. Cochran


    10. Matt


    11. Reynold


    Pre-Merge:


    12. Corinne


    13. Erik


    14. Sherrie


    15. Hope


    16. Allie


    First Boots:


    17. Francesca


    18. Michael


    19. Laura


    20. Julia

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  • Avatar of Taylorg8

    Taylorg8

    [5]Feb 12, 2013
    • member since: 08/24/10
    • level: 13
    • rank: Regal Beagle
    • posts: 843
    Winner:

    1. Cochran

    Finalists:

    2. Dawn

    3. Hope

    Jury Members:

    4. Sherri

    5. Andrea

    6. Michael

    7. Brenda

    8. Malcolm

    9. Francesca

    10. Eddie

    11. Phillip

    Pre-Merge:

    12. Corinne

    13. Shamar

    14. Laura

    15. Erik

    16. Reynold

    First Boots:

    17. Julia

    18. Matt

    19. Brandon

    20. Allie
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  • Avatar of Dfan46

    Dfan46

    [6]Feb 13, 2013
    • member since: 01/28/06
    • level: 15
    • rank: Ginsu Knife
    • posts: 476

    Ok, so it looks like Allie, Brandon, Brenda, Francesca, Julia, Laura, Matt, & Michael are the predicted First Boots (Francesca, Laura, & Julia appeared in 3 out of 4 lists). Lots of possibility for points to be awarded. Only a few more hours until the premiere airs!

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  • Avatar of skbrettbug

    skbrettbug

    [7]Feb 13, 2013
    • member since: 05/17/08
    • level: 19
    • rank: Fall Guy
    • posts: 3,168

    Great idea! Looks fun. Some people I didn't feel like putting the rationale though. Smile


    7. Brenda


    9. Corinne


    Winner:


    1. Malcolm - I love him, and he's very likeable.


    Finalists:


    2. Phillip - He is a tough target, but he will fly under the radar, as long as he keeps his mouth shut.


    3. Erik - Strong in challenges/good manipulator.


    Jury Members:


    4. Matt


    5. Michael


    6. Reynold


    7. Shamar - I respect him and maybe the players will as well.


    8. Eddie


    9. Sherrie


    10. Brenda


    11. Cochran - He will probably be first out after the merge due to his mixing with a new crowd.


    Pre-Merge:


    12. Andrea


    13. Dawn


    14. Brandon - Not likeable.


    15. Corrine


    16. (I think I missed one. If you notice please tell me!)


    First Boots:


    17. Hope - "Mactor", doesn't seem useful.


    18. Francesca - I didn't get to see much of her, but she is annoying and does not have much to offer.


    19. Julia - Not much to offer.


    20. Allie - Ditto.

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  • Avatar of skbrettbug

    skbrettbug

    [8]Feb 13, 2013
    • member since: 05/17/08
    • level: 19
    • rank: Fall Guy
    • posts: 3,168

    Great idea! Looks fun. Some people I didn't feel like putting the rationale though. Smile


    7. Brenda


    9. Corinne


    Winner:


    1. Malcolm - I love him, and he's very likeable.


    Finalists:


    2. Phillip - He is a tough target, but he will fly under the radar, as long as he keeps his mouth shut.


    3. Erik - Strong in challenges/good manipulator.


    Jury Members:


    4. Matt


    5. Michael


    6. Reynold


    7. Shamar - I respect him and maybe the players will as well.


    8. Eddie


    9. Sherrie


    10. Brenda


    11. Cochran - He will probably be first out after the merge due to his mixing with a new crowd.


    Pre-Merge:


    12. Andrea


    13. Dawn


    14. Brandon - Not likeable.


    15. Corrine


    16. Laura - So under the radar I forgot to put her in!


    First Boots:


    17. Hope - "Mactor", doesn't seem useful.


    18. Francesca - I didn't get to see much of her, but she is annoying and does not have much to offer.


    19. Julia - Not much to offer.


    20. Allie - Ditto.

    Edited on 02/18/2013 2:34pm
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  • Avatar of anthem47

    anthem47

    [9]Feb 13, 2013
    • member since: 02/18/08
    • level: 6
    • rank: Small Wonder
    • posts: 345

    I'm rushing this a bit to get it in on time but oh well, worth a shot!


    Winner: 1. Dawn (!)


    Finalists: 2. Cochrane (I love these two, but I think Dawn's likeability trumps Cochrane's, and she's probably smart enough to let him take all the heat for decimating the favourites)


    3. Erik (blasted at final tribal as wishy-washy, not flipping when he should have)


    Jury Members: 4. Julia (has a degree of physicality to her, and is sympathetic as the last favourite, so Dawn and Cochrane take Erik to the final three)


    5. Matt (Dawn and Cochrane make nice with Erik, boot one of the last favourites)


    6. Michael (tribe lines are gone, the four person alliance boots Michael, keeps Erik for a bit longer because he's so daft)


    7. Andrea (Dawn and Cochrane team up with Julia and Matt)


    8. Brandon (the fans flip Andrea and Erik)


    9. Eddie (4-5, the fans try to flip Andrea and Erik against the trio from South Pacific, I reckon Andrea is sympathetic to the idea but Erik stays loyal, so no flip occurs)


    10. Malcolm (with a 2-1 advantage, the favourites blind-side Malcolm)


    11. Reynold (Now the merge has happened, the physical players are much more threatening. The favourites preserve their advantage and no one flips)


    Pre-Merge: 12. Hope (still focusing on tribe strength, they may not know how close the merge is)


    13. Brenda (Brenda probably performs poorly in a challenge around now and is targeted, with few allies)


    14. Francesca (another fan turnaround, and Francesca is left on the outs)


    15. Allie (still focusing on tribe strength)


    16. Corinne (besides being unlikable, I think Corinne also lacks people from her season, should go early - partially why I think Brandon/Cochrane/Dawn are in a good position)


    First Boots: 17. Laura (the fans lose again and decide to start focusing on "keeping the tribe strong")


    18. Phillip (the fans rally and finally win, Phillip is turfed at the first opportunity, can't imagine the likes of Malcolm, Cochrane and Dawn putting up with him)


    19. Shamar (the fans lose again, I think Shamar might draw a target on his back a little)


    20. Sherrie (annoying and or divisive players go first, and Sherrie looks like trouble =P )



    Whew, who needs the show, could just write my own seasons!


    EDIT: Oh second thought, Cochran probably would be smarter than to take Dawn to the Final 3, but too late to change now! He wouldn't take a favourite in my scenario, maybe he just had no better options.

    Edited on 02/13/2013 7:18pm
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  • Avatar of Dfan46

    Dfan46

    [10]Feb 13, 2013
    • member since: 01/28/06
    • level: 15
    • rank: Ginsu Knife
    • posts: 476

    Alright, it looks like we've got a leaderboard. AdaHui, Amazing_race, Skbrettbug, and I get 80 points (sorry Taylorg8 and anthem47, still plenty of time to go though!). Amazing_race is our first user to have a possible streak going after correctly predicting Francesca's exit, therefore I'll place you at the top of the list.


    Current Standings:


    1. Amazing_race: 80 points (w/ possibility of 70 point correct order bonus)


    2. AdaHui: 80 points (w/ possibility of 50 point category bonus)


    3. Skbrettbug: 80 points (w/ possibility of 50 point category bonus)


    4. Dfan46: 80 points (w/ possibility of 50 point category bonus)


    5. Taylorg8: 0 points


    6. Anthem47: 0 points


    What did you guys think of the premiere? I was really shocked that Andrea's name came up, though it did come from an unbalanced source (Brandon). Truth be told, his reasoning behind voting for her was warranted but I couldn't help but think the Mikayla factor may have reared it's ugly head again - it probably didn't help that she was his partner in both of the challenges. In his mind, I have to believe that translated as MIXED SIGNALS!


    I had an idea for additional points but I didn't think it would reach everyone in time for the premiere so I held off. Since the episodes are usually quotes from the contestants (ex. "She Annoys Me Greatly" was spoken by Phillip) how about each week we all make a prediction for who says the quote? I don't want it to alter the game too much now that we've already started so let's make it worth a cool 25 points. I'll post the title of the episode as soon as I see it on the site - if anyone sees it before I do feel free to post on the board!


    P.S. Skbrettbugg, I believe Laura is missing from your list. She didn't have a lot of air time tonight (she made the sleeping arrangement observation), so you can slot her in wherever you'd like.

    Edited on 02/13/2013 7:48pm
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  • Avatar of Dfan46

    Dfan46

    [11]Feb 16, 2013
    • member since: 01/28/06
    • level: 15
    • rank: Ginsu Knife
    • posts: 476

    The title of Episode 2 is:


    "Honey Badger"


    My prediction: Brandon will compare himself to one when explaining how he intends to stick around ("I won't go down without a fight, I'm like a...")


    You don't have to be this specific but it makes it a little more fun - for all I know, this one could simply be another one of Philip's codenames for someone in his alliance

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  • Avatar of AdaHui

    AdaHui

    [12]Feb 16, 2013
    • member since: 07/05/09
    • level: 6
    • rank: Small Wonder
    • posts: 53

    For episode 2, I'll guess - Cochran said it

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  • Avatar of anthem47

    anthem47

    [13]Feb 16, 2013
    • member since: 02/18/08
    • level: 6
    • rank: Small Wonder
    • posts: 345

    I'll go Erik, describing Brandon going crazy (again).

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  • Avatar of Taylorg8

    Taylorg8

    [14]Feb 16, 2013
    • member since: 08/24/10
    • level: 13
    • rank: Regal Beagle
    • posts: 843
    My guess is also Brandon.
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  • Avatar of amazing_race

    amazing_race

    [15]Feb 18, 2013
    • member since: 04/01/07
    • level: 53
    • rank: Commander in Chief
    • posts: 6,152

    My guess will be for Dawn. (Too bad we didn't guess for Episode 1 because I was 100% sure it would be Phillip lol. )

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  • Avatar of skbrettbug

    skbrettbug

    [16]Feb 18, 2013
    • member since: 05/17/08
    • level: 19
    • rank: Fall Guy
    • posts: 3,168

    Hm, that's a good one. I'd have to say Erik just because.Smile


    PS Thanks for noticing Laura. I'll edit her in.

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  • Avatar of Dfan46

    Dfan46

    [17]Feb 19, 2013
    • member since: 01/28/06
    • level: 15
    • rank: Ginsu Knife
    • posts: 476

    Since we had a couple new participants join us before the first episode aired, I'll update the list of predictions.


    With Francesca now out of the game, the expected First Boots are Allie, Brandon, Brenda, Hope, Julia, Laura, Matt, Michael, Phillip, Shamar, & Sherri. It's interesting to note that 8 out of the 11 contestants predicted to leave early are on the Fans tribe - we must not have a lot of faith in them. Tongue out


    I have a feeling the Favorites will bounce back after last week's loss and one of the self-proclaimed cool kids will get a reality check at Tribal Council.

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  • Avatar of Dfan46

    Dfan46

    [18]Feb 20, 2013
    • member since: 01/28/06
    • level: 15
    • rank: Ginsu Knife
    • posts: 476

    "I'm a [expletive] honey badger, dude." - Brandon


    Well, it wasn't quite in the context I predicted, but I'll take it.


    Taylorg8 is now on the leaderboard after correctly guessing both the speaker of the title (sounds like a government position) and the eliminated contestant. Nicely done! Anthem47, hopefully next week is your week! Skbrettbug scored another 80 points for predicting Allie as a First Boot and is now in 2nd place. AdaHui & amazing_race are tied for 4th. Here are the current standings:


    1. Dfan46: 185 points (w/ possibility of category bonus) (+105 from last week)


    2. Skbrettbug: 160 points (w/ possibility of category bonus) (+80)


    3. Taylorg8: 105 points (+105)


    4. Amazing_race & AdaHui: 80 points (--)


    5. Anthem47: 0 points (--) Frown


    I have to admit, I think I enjoyed the premiere a little bit more than this installment -it's always a bit of a let down when the condense the reward and immunity challenges into one. Brandon's erratic behavior is almost expected at this point, so I'm hoping he's the next to go on the Favorites tribe (even if it screws up my predictions). Anyone else take a little bit of joy out of one of the pretty people getting the boot, cause this viewer certainly did!

    Edited on 02/20/2013 7:36pm
    Edited 2 total times.
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  • Avatar of Dfan46

    Dfan46

    [19]Feb 22, 2013
    • member since: 01/28/06
    • level: 15
    • rank: Ginsu Knife
    • posts: 476

    Ok, the title for next Episode 3 is: "There's Gonna Be Hell to Play"


    Since the episode description is already available I'll post it as well:


    Unhappy with the tribal council talk, Shamar lets the Fans tribe know just how displeased he is. In the Favorites camp, Brandon threatens to create chaos once again and Phillip is wearing thin on everybody's nerves.


    I'm gonna go with Shamar since the episode preview indicates he's pretty upset about getting votes at the last TC. Who do you guys think?

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  • Avatar of amazing_race

    amazing_race

    [20]Feb 23, 2013
    • member since: 04/01/07
    • level: 53
    • rank: Commander in Chief
    • posts: 6,152

    i'm caught between Shamar and Brandon, for this one, but my guess will go towards Brandon.

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