I think the reason why Exile Island was the last back-to-front great season I remember watching (through the first 15, at least) is because the last several episodes was not just one alliance running over everyone else in the game. Sure, there was a solid alliance of five that were together, but Terry Deitz acted as a spoiler and forced players to turn on one another.
For the last few seasons, we've had some pretty boring "Final fives" or "Final Just look at this season. Todd's alliance has such a strong hold on the game at this point that the only question is in what order will the rest of the original Zhan Hu tribe be eliminated? That makes Todd an interesting player to watch, but sort of pulls any of the fun out of the whole thing.
That being said, I definitely wasn't expecting Frosti to go this early. I thought Erik was gone, but Todd convinces everyone else that Frosti is the biggest threat and the most likely to turn Courtney towards the Zhan Hu side. In an Immunity Challenge that finds Frosti and Peih-Gee playing for their lives (Peih-Gee is an almost guarantee to be going home in the event that she doesn't win), Peih-Gee pulls out the win and Frosti assumes that Erik is going home.
I'm pretty sure that even Erik thought he was going home at that Tribal Council. It's just a good example of how good Todd is at getting his way, but also an example of how little surprise there will be when Todd gets down to the final four. I seriously so no way in which he doesn't make it there, unless his whole alliance mutinies.