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I suck at math and must have been absent the day that they did odds in school, so I can't do it. I however, did go to law school, so I am going to state a premise and present an argument for each of who I believe are likely candidates.

First, Jeff Davis basically said to prepare for someone we have known from the beginning is going to die. Second, he said the main credits are going to have to change. He made these two separate statements at once, but I am going to contend they have nothing to do with each other. Basically, I am going to go with as executive producer he is aware of contract status of each actor and either, or both, Daniel Sharman and Arden Cho could be bumped up to regulars or one of the main cast could be merely changed to the long list of 'guest' stars and they have to change it. Additionally, we have to look at this from the idea that there are pretty much guaranteed two more seasons (4 and 5) of this show but as I have understood various comments made at comic-con and such, there aren't a lot of plans past that point. Not that that couldn't be changed, but that is my time frame for the need for story.

I will start from emotionally hardest to easiest...

1. Stiles - now I will assume he is possessed by the Nogistune and sometime in the past episode or so the Nogistune has more overtaken Stiles so he pretends to be Stiles when he needs to be. From what I understand from Wikipedia, there is an exorcism type event that can vanquish the Nogistune and there is even an episode called "De Voided" coming up. But, between now and then, the Nogistune is likely to try and eliminate threats. So, say he kills Ethan or, for arguments sake, Malia. People we would be upset about but not heart broken. The group breaks into we have to kill Stiles we have to save Stiles (a la Jackson). Clearly Scott is going to be save Stiles and I think Derek and Allison might be on his side and I also think Kira will follow his lead at this point, but Isaac, Aiden, hell Peter, and sadly even Lydia might be kill Stiles (I would suggest Lydia is simply trying to fulfill our Stiles' actual wishes because he would be in the kill Stiles camp). But, say the exorcism is unsuccessful. And it is clear he has to die. Now, I would suggest this would get the most out of the story. Like Tommy dying on Arrow, it would focus Scott and focus his mission for his pack on protecting the town and eliminating the threat the Nemeton and its beacon poses. Lydia would cling to the group for support, if the sides are as I see them, it would break up Allison and Isaac, Scott has to figure out how to treat his betas and how to discipline them and his stance on forgiveness. And he would have someone to honor.

Against, yeah, I know Allison is totally human, but really? You would eliminate the human from the group, the heart and he lets Scott be the hero and he can be the heavy. He is less the comic relief anymore, but he is the only one Scott can count on.

2. Derek - Oh, well, in my scenario, Stiles as the Nogistune kills him and he sacrifices himself for Kira because of Scott. Scott loses his big brother and mentor. But now Scott has to totally embrace everything about being the Alpha. Derek might be too much of a crutch for him.

Against, the show doesn't forget that Scott is only a seventeen year old kid. He needs Derek still. Derek also because Deaton is so damn cryptic seems to almost becoming a Giles type to the group.

3. Lydia - so, her death would be one where her status would merely change because I have some doubts that she can actually die the way we think of dying. I almost kind of think it would let her fully come into her Banshee abilities that she traveled.

Against, as much as we love her, Stiles would be upset, Allison would be upset, Aiden would be upset, Scott might be sad...but...also, what actual importance has she served for Scott yet? Whatever prophecy or whatever that Deucalion was following up on seemed to indicate that there would be one. Since then, she called Derek and Cora back (after she basically told them to run) and she helped finding Kira. Both important and the latter more to Scott, but, I don't think she is done yet.

4. Deaton- um, where is he? He might already be dead. Or maybe he is just taking adult ed classes on Japanese mythology.

5. Ethan - basically because Aiden has a longer road to hoe on the redemption path than Ethan does because at times Ethan appears to regret. However, these are not original cast members.

Those are my candidates...how about you?
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