Ignored by Homer when she tries to show him a shoebox apartment she made for her Malibu Stacy dolls while he is watching football, Lisa complains to Marge, who suggests spending some "quality time" with Homer by taking up his interests. Lisa decides to join her father on the couch, and an annoyed Homer reluctantly agrees. Meanwhile, Homer loses his bet on Denver.
After being ripped off by 1-900 betting advice hotlines, a desperate Homer turns to Lisa to pick a winner, and she picks the Miami Dolphins, prompting Homer to call Moe's Tavern to place his $50 wager, in spite of Lisa's moral concerns. In the end, the Dolphins win, and Homer and Lisa celebrate. Meanwhile, Marge has taken Bart shopping for new (dorky) clothes, but the bullies taunt him.
Lisa becomes very adept at choosing winners of football games, and Homer declares every Sunday "Daddy-Daughter Day." With his new money, he starts buying expensive presents for the family and treating them to fine dining. Marge eventually wants to know where Homer's extra income is coming from and gets the truth, but Homer says it is not really a big deal. Eventually, Lisa realizes all Homer wanted was to exploit her prognostic abilities to help him gamble. Completely heartbroken, Lisa then gives up all the Malibu Stacy toys that Homer bought for her.
Homer realizes he needs to make amends with Lisa, but she is too hurt to even talk with him. In fact, she makes a cryptic prediction as to the winner of the game: If she still loves Homer, Washington will win; if she does not, Buffalo. Homer becomes even more anxious over his relationship with Lisa as Super Bowl Sunday approaches.
Homer mopes throughout the game as he watches it at Moe's Tavern, especially after Buffalo gets a 14-7 halftime lead. In the end, Washington rallies in the second half and scores at the last second to win the game. Homer becomes happy and Bart proudly says to Lisa that she still loves Homer, in which she agrees. Homer cancels his bowling date with Barney and – on the Sunday after the Super Bowl – makes good on his promise to go hiking up Mount Springfield with Lisa.