10. D'oh-in in the Wind - Season 10

9. Colonel Homer - Season 3

8. Moe'N'a Lisa - Season 18

7. Blame it on Lisa - Season 13

6. Brawl in the Family - Season 13

5. Jazzy and the Pu$$ycats - Season 18

4. There's Something About Marrying - Season 16

3. G.I. D'oh - Season 18

2. Homer of Seville - Season 19

1. Bart-Mangled Banner - Season 15

In case you haven't noticed my lovely signature, then I am here to inform you I have chosen to support John Sydney McCain, the Republican nominee, for president. After my original candidate of choice, Fred Thompson, dropped out in January, I made a statement that I would support the winner of the GOP nomination and his ticket. It took ONLY eleven months of campaigning, debating, and contests but finally the GOP candidate is set. It is hard to believe that the first GOP debate took place back in the first week of May 2007. All eyes were on the field of nine to see who would take charge and become the early Republican front runner. There were many candidates that appeared to fill this void too; Mitt Romney, the popular Massachusetts Governor; Rudy Giuliani, popular NYC mayor and one of the heroes on 9/11; and talk of Fred Thompson entering the race, the so called consistent conservative. However, no one was looking toward the lonely Arizona Senator John McCain. McCain was all but written off as a viable candidate after his immigration bill failed in the summer of 2007. This led to the celebration of conservatives everywhere and the chanting of talk radio hosts calling McCain a liberal for his "amnesty bill." McCain's campaign was on life support for most the year and many considered him a goner but something amazing happened to John McCain in December 2007. Polls around New Hampshire begin to show McCain rising to the top and soon he became tied with Mitt Romney for the lead. Then it happened, just days after Mike Huckabee upset Romney in Iowa, John McCain defeated Mitt Romney in the New Hampshire Primary. After that it was all McCain. He went on to win SC, FL, Super Tuesday, the Potomac Primaries, WA, WI, and Super Tuesday II. After he swept Super Tuesday II, McCain captured the 1191 delegates to win the GOP nomination and thus ended the Republican competition. I am proud to support Senator McCain. I feel he is the best and most qualified to lead this nation through these crucial times over the next four years. McCain not only has an excellent military background but great foreign policy experience to deal with the threats of enemies abroad, the future of Iraq, and winning the War on Terror. He is a strong second amendment supporter and has an excellent pro-life record. McCain has also vowed not to raise taxes and to make the important Bush tax cuts permanent. He also has stated he would appoint conservative judges to the Supreme Court. McCain also will be ready to fight for proper healthcare reform in an un-socialist ****manner and tackle the major economic issues that the U.S. will face in the years to come. Finally, McCain has vowed to control wasteful spending, including earmarks and pork barrel projects. This is a major issue the American people have dealt with over the past years that both Democrats and Republicans are responsible for. These are issues that both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama either will not tackle, won't know how to tackle, or will just screw up. However, with any politician there are disagreements and John McCain is no different. McCain has stated he will not allow torture to terror suspects and although I agree to an extent, McCain is wrong on waterboarding, which I think is not torture. McCain also does not support Guantanamo bay, which is very beneficial to holding suspected terrorists. McCain also has fallen victim to the global warming hysteria and wants gas taxes and unnecessary gov. regulation. Also of course there is McCain/Feingold, which needs no explanation of my disgust there. Finally, McCain, simply put, got immigration wrong. It is his Achilles heel with conservatives and the main reason many do not trust him. McCain stated at CPAC though he got it wrong and heard the American people. I trust him on this and no one is perfect. He made a mistake and I mean a big one but at least he admitted it. Although there are clearly differences with conservatives and myself with Senator McCain I can think of no better leader to trust with the future of my country. McCain has the experience, integrity, and trust that Washington needs to lead the way in the upcoming years. Now let's just hope he picks a sensible VP. To sum it up: Who do I want to answer the phone in the Whitehouse at 3am? John McCain; Who do I want to bring real change to America? John McCain Who has the most experience? John McCain; Who is ready on day one? John McCain; Who do I want for President? John McCain

Simpsons Season 19:

He Loves to Fly and He D'ohs: D

The Homer of Seville: F

Midnight Towboy: B

I Don't Wanna Know Why the Caged Bird Sings: B

Treehouse of Horror XVIII: C

Little Orphan Millie: C

Husbands and Knives: C

Funeral for a Fiend: B

Eternal Moonshine of the Simpson Mind: A

E Pluribus Wiggum: A

That 90's Show: C

Love, Springfieldian Style: A

The Debarted: A

Dial 'N' for Nerder: B

Smoke on the Daughter: A

Papa Don't Leech: C

Apocalypse Cow: B

Any Given Sundance: D

Mona Leaves-a: B

All About Lisa: A

Season 19: B

Hurricanes 2007

Pre-Season Forecast

After the surprisingly slow season of 2006 the next hurricane season is just around the corner. Recently, tropical weather has dominated the news and people's lives after the unforgiving torments of the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons. The combined total of those two seasons brought forty three named storms, twenty three hurricanes, thirteen major hurricanes, and nearly 200 billion dollars in damage. Thankfully, the 2006 hurricane season offered a break with only three landfalling storms, none of which were hurricanes. However, this recent slowdown in activity may be eclipsed by yet another active season. As we enter the 2007 hurricane season meteorologists will not be the only ones put to the test this time around but government officials again too. After the fiasco that was Hurricane Katrina response and so many major hurricane landfalls, hurricanes have become major politics. With meteorologists armed with better technology and politicians on standby America is now ready for what may be a very interesting season. However, are its citizens? Now that the 2007 season is ready to begin it looks like everyone will be put to the test with what could be a "very active season."

 

The Current Forecast

 

Each year at the beginning of December, after the each hurricane season ends, Colorado State University's (CSU) Dr. William Grey and Philip Klotzbach along with a team of meteorologists make a pre-season forecast of the upcoming hurricane season. Based on a number of factors the team calculated that the 2007 hurricane season would be very active compared to 2006. The team predicted that there would be fourteen named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Keep in mind that the average amount of storms per season is ten storms and the record is twenty eight from 2005. The group also predicted that there was a 64% chance of one major hurricane striking the mainland United States in 2007. This prediction was based on historical records and trends. As the season drew closer the CSU team made another prediction as well as National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Hurricane Center. Klotzbach's team saw a change in the models and elements for the 2007 season to make them upgrade the forecast to seventeen named storms, nine hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. The team also upped the chances to 74% that a major hurricane would impact the United States. This would put the season in the ballpark of severity of the 2004 hurricane season. NOAA also has calculated that chances are great for a very active season as well but hasn't released their outlook as of yet.

2006 v. 2007

Some may be wondering just why experts already think the 2007 hurricane season will be worse than the 2006 and why the 2006 season, which was predicted to very active as well, only made a dent in hurricane activity compared to past hurricane seasons. Here are some answers. One reason the CSU team predicted the 2006 hurricane to be so active was due to the fact a La Nina was to set to develop in the Pacific. A La Nina is the opposite of El Nino and is a cooling of the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of South America. La Ninas weaken high-level westerly winds or shift them to flow eastward. These high-level westerly winds are responsible for disrupting hurricane formation by blowing off the storm's top or shearing the storm apart. With calmer westerly winds the hurricanes are able to expand and grow in power. Westerly winds act strongly against the hurricanes during an El Nino. However, the El Nino held intact and the La Nina never set in the 2006 season. Sea surface pressure and westerly winds held strong limiting the number of storms. Thus, the pre-season forecast was a bust due to the lingering El Nino. Now in present day, the 2007 season has the same setup as 2006 did so that is why the CSU team was conservative in their December outlook. They were expecting the El Nino to dissipate but they could not be sure, however that changed in April when El Nino conditions fell apart rapidly and the team was positive that the La Nina was setting in. Another factor was sea surface temperatures were already above average compared to the long term averages across the Atlantic. With these conditions in place the right ingredients are available for many storms and a few long tracked, violent hurricanes.

New Situations

When the 2006 hurricane season ended it left behind one of the least active hurricane seasons in nearly a decade and the first hurricane season not to have a landfalling hurricane in sixteen years, though the 2006 hurricane season did leave some interesting situations. One was that after seven years of service, National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield retired in January. Mayfield left behind thirty four years of service at NOAA but indicated he was ready to get some rest. The experience Mayfield had of hurricanes and his leadership was missed greatly at the NHC but somebody had to fill position. That person became meteorologist Bill Proenza on January 4th. Proenza now had to provide excellent conduct and leadership in the wake of the next big hurricane season. Also Proenza had to focus on the major problem of "lack of readiness" that the 2006 hurricane season left behind to all coastal dwelling citizens. After a batched forecast and many false alarms from what many thought were going to be major hurricanes Chris and Ernesto, the public became very distrustful of meteorologists. Meteorologists fear a failed forecast more than any other scenario especially one that requires evacuation or panic. With a slow hurricane season combined with failed forecasts, when potentially dangerous storms threatened, the public has become weary and may not be ready to act the next time a hurricane comes around. Thankfully, Proenza, along with NOAA, has launched a campaign to prepare residents of hurricane awareness, readiness, and safety. This is an important step of winning the population's trust in advance of this season and will in turn save lives.

 

 

My Forecast

Now for the final part of my pre-season report I will predict what I think will occur during the next six months. Based on historical evidence, current and past trends, and a little advice from the current forecasts I feel that this will indeed be an above average season. My current projection is there will be fifteen named storms, eight hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. I feel that the La Nina will be fully established in late June/early July and water temperatures will hold in the mid eighties across the Atlantic. In my opinion the main threat for an impact of a storm or hurricane from the early to middle part of the season will be the eastern Gulf of Mexico or Texas coast. Water temperatures are already warm enough to support a tropical system so be ready for a possible June hurricane. The later part of the hurricane season will threaten the east coast, from Miami to Long Island. My main area of concern is South Carolina. That area has not seen a major hurricane impact since Hugo in 1989 and in my opinion is "long overdue." They have also escaped major impacts from Fran, Floyd, and Isabel over recent years but if the Bermuda High catches a storm just right then South Carolina's luck will run out. These are all of course just predictions and in no way a certainty.

A Final Note

Every hurricane season is different and nobody can accurately predict what will happen or where it will occur. It is just important that everyone be ready and prepare for the worst case scenario. The 2006 season taught us that just because a season is forecasted to be fierce and active it can be calm and tranquil; a lesson the 2007 seaon may yet teach us as well. Whether or not the 2007 hurricane season is active or not it is important to remember that there can be only five storms or twenty in a season but it only takes one to affect a community for a lifetime. Just ask folks who lived in Dade County, Florida in 1992 or Gulfport, Mississippi in 2005. Remember be smart, be safe, and be ready because the next killer could be a tropical depression away. I'm Andrew Starnes and the 2007 hurricane season begins in less than one month, ready or not.

Well the first severe weather of 2007 is upon us here at Norman, Oklahoma and I am excitied. We
disscussed the threat in my Oklahoma Weather Lab session on Wed. and we
all agree that Norman is going to get hit hard but the main threat will
be a squall line of winds around 80mph. The tornado threat will be
mainly to the west of us however u cannot rule it out completely. The
Storm Prediciton Center feels confident we might see some tornadic
conditions early Sat. morning.
Severe Weather Threat


Tornado Threat