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Season 2006 Episode 1115

Forecasting Natural Disasters

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Forecasting Natural Disasters
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Forecasting Natural Disasters in the Chaotic and Complex Earth with John Rundle and discussant Geoffrey B. West.In the recent past we have seen the December 2004 Sumatra earthquake and tsunami; the August 2005 Hurricane Katrina that destroyed New Orleans and the Gulf Coast; and the Pakistan earthquake in October 2005. Other, less catastrophic disasters include a multiplicity of landslides, flooding, wildfires, tornadoes and epidemics.For many of these events, vast quantities of satellite data are opening new horizons to better understanding them. Using space-time patterns and information about the dynamics of these high-dimensional nonlinear earth systems, it is often possible to construct numerical simulations that can be used to make predictions about the evolution of the system and the possible occurrence of extreme events - Santa Fe Institutemoreless

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