FORA Technology

Season 2008 Episode 0422

Paul Saffo on Embracing Uncertainty and Forecasting

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Paul Saffo on Embracing Uncertainty and Forecasting
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Paul Saffo discusses Embracing Uncertainty: Connecting Policy to Long-Range Forecasting.A movie star as governor? No way! Planes hitting skyscrapers? The stuff of horror films! Forecasters struggle to anticipate an ever-stranger geopolitical reality. In this moment of unprecedented uncertainty and change, says Saffo, it is tempting to conclude that forecasting is as dangerous as it is futile.In fact, connecting short-term policy to long-range forecasting is surprisingly easy - and absolutely crucial to meeting the challenges before us. All it takes is a simple shift in perspective and a few common-sense heuristics.Saffo is a legendary technology forecaster, with over two decades of experience exploring long-term technological change and its impact on business and society - The Commonwealth Club of Californiamoreless
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